Focus Turns to Papal Succession

As they ponder in the ornate surroundings of the Vatican, the cardinals must weigh up a perplexing array of demands ranging from theological doctrine to skin color via inter-faith dialogue, contraception and attitudes to women and gays.

But into weighty matters essentially reflecting sin and the soul comes an imponderable which perhaps two weeks ago could not have been foreseen -- the immense outpouring of affection that John Paul II inspired.

If the cardinals were not aware before that they need a successor who will have an equally sure touch with the public, the millions of people around the world who mourned the pope's death will have made it crystal clear.

Closeted reflection

The conclave begins on April 18. From that afternoon on, after a solemn mass and swearing-in ceremony, the cardinal electors are cloistered away, barred from all communication with the outside world, until they choose a successor via a series of ballots in the Sistine Chapel.

There are 117 cardinals who fit the eligibility criteria of being aged less than 80, but one of those, Manila's Jaime Sin, is ill and cannot attend. Even now, though, they are not supposed to campaign, strike deals or reveal any of their or their fellow cardinals' musings, on pain of excommunication.

Over the next week, the cardinals will hold a series of daily meetings -- after all, they do still have to run the Roman Catholic Church in the pope's absence. But it is the informal encounters, the quiet conversations, that may well settle voting intentions. Such an atmosphere is a boon for ad hoc discussions and reflection panels, as well as allowing groups such as the highly conservative Opus Dei to sound out the mood.

Differing ideas of future Pope

From the Philippines comes the strong message that a "liberal" pope is a definite no-no. "If the pope is a liberal it is against the law of God," says Ramon Arguelles, the Archbishop of Lipa, south of Manila.

The Philippines is one of the few countries in the world where the majority of Catholics broadly agree with Vatican opposition to abortion, contraception and the ordination of women priests.

In the United States, though, a recent survey found that 63 percent of US Catholics believe that priests should be allowed to marry and more than three in four that the Vatican should allow the use of birth control.

From Australia came a message from Cardinal George Pell, now in Rome, that the next pontiff would follow the line taken by John Paul II who, for all his popularity, has left a staunchly conservative legacy.

US Cardinal Francis George of Chicago admitted earlier this week that "we may need a different kind of pope." His comments at a news conference -- that while there were good reasons to elect a pope from a developing nation, he would have to be "acceptable to the Romans" and speak Italian -- may indicate which way the wind may blow.

A rash of favorites

According to the bookies, the favorites for the papal throne are cardinals Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan, northern Italy, and Francis Arinze (photo) of Nigeria. Arinze would be only the Church's third African pope, and the first since Gelatius I in the late fifth century, but observers find it difficult to see the cardinals going for such a revolution.

John Paul II, after all, was the first non-Italian pope in more than four centuries, and even he only came to the fore in 1978 after Italian cardinals failed to unite around a single candidate.

Other possible contenders include Germany's Joseph Ratzinger (photo), the Vatican's doctrinal enforcer who delivered the homily at John Paul II's funeral; Claudio Hummes, the Archbishop of Sao Paulo in Brazil; and Honduran Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga.

Filling in oversized shoes

What the Church may well want is a safe, steady hand. Four years ago, a consistory of cardinals was asked to reflect on the key challenges facing the Church in the 21st century at a time when congregations and faith appear to be declining in a rampantly commercial world. When the conclave begins, the cardinals will be given a "meditation" which is expected to focus on some of those discussions.

And of course there is the personality factor -- John Paul II drew tens of millions of people during a papal record-breaking 104 foreign trips, and his charisma drew millions again to Rome to mourn his death.

Can the next pontiff keep that up? The cardinals will want to know.