Limited optimism

Negotiators trying to hammer out a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been dragging their feet for months and disagreeing behind the scenes.

European Union nations have, for their part, been in relative agreement on the aim of this deal: the increase in global temperatures by 2050 cannot exceed 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). But few non-EU countries are willing to sign on to such an accord, according to the European Commission.

"The aggregate offers from developed countries still fall well short of the level of ambition needed, so I urge those countries with weak targets to improve them," EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas told reporters.

Carbon dioxide emissions will have to be drastically reduced to achieve the European goal, and deciding who is going to foot the bill remains controversial - even in the EU.

Until recently, the United States and China - the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases - have not committed themselves to concrete reduction figures, but they have now shown a willingness to negotiate.

Reducing emissions

The White House announced that the United States would aim to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 17 percent by 2020, but only as compared to output in 2005. European President Manual Jose Manuel Barroso welcomed the announcement, but also said that emissions reduction goal could be "disappointing" for some. Unlike the US proposal, the Kyoto Protocol uses 1990 as its benchmark year.

China has also said it would reduce its carbon intensity from 40 to 45 percent by 2020, but it also said it expected other countries to make concessions.

The importance of the Copenhagen summit is apparent in announcements by US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and 96 other heads of state that they would be attending. All leaders, however, will not be there at the same time. Obama has said he would not be present for the final round of talks.

Developing countries particularly affected

Many observers believe world leaders must play a decisive role in climate protection. A new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol does not make much sense without countries like the United States or China on board, said Francis Appiah, executive secretary of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) - an initiative of African countries aiming to affect positive, modern change on the continent.

"People remember how places that are now only grass were once covered by forests," Appiah said. "Rivers are drying up. Africans realize that something monstrous is happening here."

Developing countries are especially suffering from climate change, though they are the least responsible for causing it, Appiah pointed out, stressing that an international treaty, including rich, industrialized countries, is essential if the worst of climate change is to be avoided.

US could set the pace

Appiah said he is cautious in his optimism that the United States will actively work toward a solution.

"If one considers the stance China, Brazil, India and other countries take on the matter, then it's clear just how difficult it will be," he said. "But it's also evident that climate change affects every nation."

Michael Otto, chairman of the supervisory board of the world's largest mail-order company and founder of the initiative "2 Degrees - German CEOs for Climate Protection," agreed that the US plays a central role in tackling climate change, but also praised other countries' efforts, such as China's. People "do not recognize China's current efforts and their future plans. After all, they realize that climate change is affecting their country already."

Max Schoen, chairman of the German Association of the Club of Rome - a non-profit global think tank - said he expects leaders to come to an agreement in Copenhagen, but added that it will not be "particularly ambitious." He said he believes the US will be willing to make only minor concessions.

"One has to consider that America has historically been a major proponent of crude oil," Schoen said. "Major companies have invested their money in the complete infrastructures required for that and are now scared their investments will become devalued."

International framework essential

Many companies, however, are expanding to incorporate green technologies in their businesses. German utilities companies in particular are eyeing the potential for growth. Many firms also realize that protecting the climate is indispensible.

Still, frameworks and financing must be clear, Otto said. "That is why an international emissions trading scheme is so important," Otto said. "That already exists in Europe, but must be expanded on a global level to help with the financing problem."

Other business leaders agree. Jorma Ollila, non-executive chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, said he believes a general framework is vital for the economy and said that not enough energy has been invested in this area of late.

"A transparent set of guidelines must be drawn up in Copenhagen and a clear timetable as to how and when the goals must be reached," he said.

Author: Julia Bernstorf (als)

Editor: Sean Sinico