More carrots

As Iranian officials and the five permanent Security Council seat holders - UK, China, France, Russia and the US - plus Germany have restarted negotiations on Thursday after a long hiatus, there were warnings from the United States and European powers that more sanctions could be on the cards if Iran refuses to give access to nuclear facilities and freeze sensitive activities. Russia and China, however, have been reluctant to impose more sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

Washington has suggested wider sanctions hitting banking and the oil and gas industry if Iran, the world's number five export of crude oil, fails to allay Western fears over its nuclear ambitions.

A weapon hard to target

But political scientist Jochen Hippler from the University of Duisburg-Essen sees little sense in imposing further penalties on Tehran. "There have been sanctions for years. Their degree of effectivity has been around zero."

Targeting sanctions is a major problem, according to the Middle East expert. "I think, in general, sanctions don't work as they are intended to, unless a country is particularly vulnerable in one particular aspect. They don't lead to the desired outcome. We've seen that in quite a lot of different countries," he said.

And such measures tend to hurt the poorer sections of the population far more than those in power. A poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org suggests that Iranians, indeed, are feeling the pinch.

The survey shows that two-third favor their government precluding the development of nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. However, only one-third of the 1,003 Iranians canvassed said they would be ready to halt uranium enrichment, as a result.

Is the world ready for an oil boycott?

More far-reaching radical sanctions, such as a boycott of Iranian crude oil exports, would come at a high price for both Iran's population and the world, in general. "Oil is a very sensitive sector for Tehran. Iran is economically dependent on crude oil exports to large extent. It is tool for exerting political pressure.

"But the population would be hit by rising prices and higher unemployment. It would also pose dangers to the global economy, particularly in a time of crisis like this," said Hippler.

And there is the question of whether the international community really stands united behind these sanctions. China and Russia, in particular, have shown questionable commitment.

Time for a different approach?

Iran expert Konstantin Kosten believes it is time for a change of tack. The 15-member UN Security Council has imposed three sets of sanctions against Iran over its refusal to freeze its uranium enrichment activities. But the first time that the United States imposed economic sanctions against Iran was back in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution.

"Iran is completely used to sanctions. It is Iran's daily bread," said Kosten, from the German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP). "Iran has been living under sanctions for thirty years. The incentive is missing."

The Iran expert stressed the importance of holding further rounds of talks and opening up the dialog to include other topics as well as the nuclear issue, such as the Middle East conflict, human rights and Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization.

"It is very important to make clear to Iran and the public as a whole that there are other options. There should be more focus on the carrot rather than the stick," said Kosten.

Author: Julie Gregson

Editor: Michael Knigge