EU: May's deal the only path to orderly Brexit

Barnier outlined three choices for the UK Parliament on Tuesday but stressed that, for an orderly exit from the European Union, it would be necessary to back UK Prime Minister Theresa May's deal.

The House of Commons must find a positive way to avoid a no deal scenario after MPs repeatedly rejected the Withdrawal Agreement and failed to reach a majority on alternative ideas.

Barnier set out three possibilities

• The possibility of a successful "meaningful vote” on the withdrawal agreement in the next few days. "The only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit is and will be through a positive majority. We should continue to make this point in the public debate," Barnier said.
• Leaving without an agreement should the meaningful vote fail: "No deal was never my desired or intended scenario, but the EU 27 is more prepared. It becomes day after day more likely." Requesting an extension to Article 50, should the deal fail. "Such an extension would carry significant risk for the EU," said Barnier. "A strong justification would be needed."

For her part, May was holding five hours of meetings with her Cabinet on Tuesday to try to find a way forward.

French President Emmanuel Macron met with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar in Paris on Tuesday. Macron too urged the British government to come up with a plan: "If the United Kingdom is not capable, almost three years after the referendum, of coming forward with a solution that is
supported by a majority, it will have effectively chosen a no-deal exit on its own," he said.

Deal is 'only way' for smooth Brexit

The Withdrawal Agreement does not include a plan for future relations, which are to be discussed in the next phase of Brexit talks.

If there were an extension to Article 50, Barnier said, the so-called political agreement — which sets out the future relationship — could be reworked.

Agreeing to May's deal at this stage could still allow for a customs union, Barnier said, or a relationship akin to the one the EU has with Norway.

"If the UK so wish we're ready to rework the political declaration so long as the principles of the EU are respected. We can accept a customs union or a relationship along the style of the Norway model," Barnier said.

Possible outcomes

A customs union is one type of "soft Brexit" that would see the UK retain the same tariff system as the EU, helping businesses send goods back and forth to the bloc. However, it would still not allow completely frictionless trade, and would prevent the UK from doing its own trade deals.

Read more: What the European Union wants

The option of emulating a Norway-style agreement would see Britain no longer an EU member but still part of the bloc's single market. It would mean respecting EU rules on free movement of people, goods and capital — things that would be unacceptable to many Brexiters.

A Norway or customs union resolution should solve the problem of the Irish border "backstop."

A second referendum, as backed by the People’s Vote campaign, could mean that Brexit never takes place at all, although — with a majority in the House of Commons against — that still looks unlikely.

Preparations for no deal

Barnier said the EU27 were ready for a no-deal Brexit, even if it were abrupt.

Barnier said that, even if there were no deal, Brussels would insist that the UK honor its obligations on citizens' rights, a financial settlement and the Irish border.

"Being prepared for no deal doesn't mean that everything will be smooth," Barnier said. "There will be disruptions. There will be problems. Being prepared means all unforeseen disruptions could be managed by the EU."

rc/jil (Reuters, dpa)

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