Can the democracy Europe has cultivated endure?

The modern concept of democracy originated in Europe and, from ancient Athens to 21st-century Brussels, governments have sought to ensure that elections are free and state power is shared, and fundamental rights are guaranteed. The stability of democratic institutions in many European countries attracts hundreds of thousands of people every year who have fled war and persecution in their homelands.

About 5.7 billion people, or 72% of the world's population, currently live in electoral autocracies or closed autocracies, according to the Democracy Report by the V-Dem Institute at Sweden's University of Gothenburg. In electoral autocracies, there are official elections, but they are not free; in closed autocracies, individuals or blocs exercise power unchecked.

Only 13% of the world's population lives in one of the liberal democracies. Most countries that are considered liberal democracies are in Europe. In a liberal democracy, civil liberties are constitutionally protected and independent courts and a strong rule of law balance the executive power of the government.

And, although the democracies in Europe are some of the strongest on the Liberal Democracy Index, observers worry about recent developments on the continent. "Some of the most dramatic reversals — what we call autocratization — we've seen in Europe, too," said Martin Lundstedt, political scientist and co-author of the VDem democracy report. "Most notably in Poland and Hungary. Greece is another recent and concerning case, although the drop in democratic quality hasn’t been as dramatic there yet." 

Maria Skóra is a sociologist and economist with the Institute for European Politics in Berlin, where she researches the resiliency of rule of law in EU countries. "With Poland and Hungary, we see two EU member states proactively dismantling the rule of law," Skóra said. "It's not just about democracy in these countries, but also about the reliability of their public institutions, their administrations — but also compatibility with EU law. A robust democracy ensures that the rule of law functions well. When the rule of law breaks down, other parts of democratic systems break down, as well." 

Although they say the developments in Poland and Hungary are the most concerning, Lundstedt and Skóra also see anti-democratic tendencies in almost all other countries in Europe. That's because nationalist and right-wing-populist parties are seeing electoral success and moving increasingly into the political mainstream. 

"Typically they're far-right parties who either have a dubious commitment to democracy or are outright hostile to democracy," Lundstedt said. "For example, they are often attacking aspects of media freedom and freedom of association, or they want to undermine power sharing between the executive, parliament and the courts." 

Globally, the trend toward ever greater autocratization prevails. But there are at least a few countries where this trend has been reversed. In Europe, for example, the democracies in North Macedonia, Moldova and Slovenia have become more liberal again after going through periods of autocratization.   

At the beginning of 2023, about 81% of the people in Moldova were not very or not at all satisfied with democracy in the country, according to a Eurobarometer survey. By comparison, this was true of 42% of Europeans on average. 

More surprising are the survey results for Hungary and Poland: Though these countries have become increasingly autocratic, 47% of Hungarians say they are satisfied with democracy in their country — as do a full 58% of Poles.

"We live in very turbulent times, where the problems are really complex and there simply can't be any easy answers," Skóra said. "But to abolish the entire political system — democracy — is not a solution either. It would be good if citizens understood that and had more trust in politics. And creating this trust is the job of politicians." 

Proponents of rule of law in Poland cheered the recent elections victory by a three-way alliance under former Prime Minister Donald Tusk's center-right Civic Platform after eight years of increasingly anti-democratic policies by the Law and Justice party. 

How citizens can engage in democracy

There has been substantial research into why people choose to reject democracy or vote in favor of anti-democratic parties. "Commonly mentioned factors are economic inequality, people with status anxiety, feeling both economically and culturally left behind," Lundstedt said. "This tends to be more common in rural areas, too, creating an urban-rural divide. Tension and division between language groups, ethnic groups and religious groups can also contribute to anti-democratic support." 

Lundstedt said people could strengthen democracy in their countries through "citizen activity within society, placing oneself in positions where you meet people, maybe from other lines of work, other backgrounds, other neighborhoods, so that you involve yourself in a deeper sense in society."  

"It could be joining a political party, a football association, a workers union, a book circle or whatever interests you," Lundstedt said. "Meeting and interacting with other people matters for the quality of democracy, being able to understand others and see their perspectives, which I’d believe makes citizens generally more trusting and more respectful of the democratic system." 

In addition to direct engagement with communities, Skóra said people could strengthen democracy  through media literacy. "So what citizens could do is perhaps become more resilient themselves — learning resilience to disinformation, not allowing themselves to be manipulated by fake news, and being able to distinguish false news from legitimate communication," Skóra said. 

Such an investment in democracy would, of course, require investments into the appropriate educational measures by the parties in power. 

Kira Schacht contributed research.

Edited by: Peter Hille and Milan Gagnon

Data and Code behind this analysis can be found in this repository. More data-driven stories can be found here.