Message to Moscow

During recent congressional hearings on the Obama administration's policy toward Russia, Philip Gordon, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs left open the possibility that Russia could join NATO in the future. According to Gordon, "if Russia meets the criteria and can contribute to common security, and there is a consensus in the alliance, it shouldn't be excluded."

The suggestion was rebuffed by Moscow's envoy to NATO who called it not serious enough and accused the US of trying to take advantage of Russia's weaknesses while a NATO spokesman said the issue was not on the agenda.

The proposal that Russia could become a member of the transatlantic military alliance is certainly not new. In the fading days of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin surprised NATO by stating that Moscow wanted to discuss membership in the alliance. Almost a decade later, when asked whether Russia could join NATO, Vladimir Putin said he saw no reason why not.

Of course, nothing ever came of the idea that Russia could join the very organisation that was created to contain the Soviet Union. What's more, after a brief political honeymoon between US President George W. Bush and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, relations between the US and Russia turned so sour that even thinking about a prospective membership seemed out of place.

Clever move

But with President Barack Obama's policy of "resetting" relations with Moscow, the statement that Russia could potentially join NATO should not be dismissed as mere rhetoric, experts argue.

It's a clever move, says Josef Braml, a security analyst with the German Council on Foreign Relations. By declaring that Russia could become a member of NATO, Washington underlines its commitment to improved bilateral relations, makes it more difficult for hardliners in Moscow to argue against it and makes it harder for Europeans to not go along with America's idea of adapting NATO to the new circumstances.

Mark Medish, a former senior director for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian affairs on the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton calls the proposal smart psychology and considers it to be part of Obama's larger "reset" philosophy.

Both experts point out that Russian membership of NATO is not on the cards anytime soon. But, they argue, it is indicative of a larger policy shift: "It's much akin to President Obama's speech in Prague where he outlined a vision of a nuclear-free world," says Medish. "That's not a near-term objective, it's not on the agenda, but it's a vision and I think it's an important signal being sent by Washington about a new way of looking at the world."

Same interests

In the long run, Moscow's membership in NATO could benefit both the alliance and Russia, argues Medish. "A Russia that joined NATO on the basis of NATO's standards would be more in the interest of the United States and Europe than any other security development in Eurasia." But especially the US and Russia share some of the same goals, adds Braml: "It is and can be of common interest to fight terrorism. It's also in the strategic interest of Russia to stabilize its periphery."

The US on the other hand has learned that it needs Russia if it wants to be successful in Afghanistan and on other issues and has realigned its priorities. "I guess America won't push hard any longer as it did under the Bush administration to include Georgia and the Ukraine into NATO," says Braml. "I think that has for many other reasons as well been put on the backburner. I think there is a strategic understanding (between Russia and the US) not to provoke each other."

The message for the Europeans, especially for Poland, argues Braml, is that the US wants to expand NATO's mission from an organisation that was primarily focused on reacting to Russian aggression to one that can actively deal with new global threats such as terrorism or fragile states. Such a new and revised NATO could one day even include Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea or Australia, says Braml.

Europe's reaction

The big question for Europe, though is, whether it is prepared for a debate about a new NATO. "The Europeans are eager to keep the status quo," says Braml. "Especially the German elites, I think, are keen on keeping it (NATO) as a traditional transatlantic club, the Americans and us." He adds that many in German foreign policy circles suspect that Washington wants to use this new global NATO as a competitor to the UN.

In any case, Europe should take those proposals from Washington very seriously, advises Braml. "There is something coming and we should really make up our minds. If we are not capable of sharing some burden, helping America out in Afghanistan and Pakistan, we will not have many arguments to argue against broadening this alliance."

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge