Power play

In a move that wasn't widely reported, but probably didn't go unnoticed in Beijing, President Barack Obama last month turned the authority to monitor and approve missile and technology sales to China from the White House to the Commerce Department.

While the administration says the change won't loosen the strict rules on military technology exports to Beijing, non-proliferation experts noted the fact that the enforcement of export rules was turned over to the Commerce Department to promote US business interests instead of the Pentagon or the State Department.

Earlier, Obama's decision not to meet the Dalai Lama before the president's upcoming trip to China - the first presidential snub for Tibet's spiritual leader since 1991 - had made international news and triggered a debate about a possible shift of US-China policy.

Another indicator of a new US approach was a statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that human rights issues were still part of US-China policy, but couldn't ultimately damage the relationship.

A third aspect of a change in the White House's human rights policy toward China are its dealings with Rebiya Kadeer and the World Uighur Congress.

"Rebiya Kadeer in previous administrations was having meetings with the president. She has found it very difficult to get a similiar level of access, even to meet with a number of officials on lower levels in the administration and the Chinese are aware of this too," said Andrew Small, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

All these instances, adds Small, constitute a clear change in human rights policy from earlier administrations.

That shift in focus by the new administration - less emphasis on human rights issues, more emphasis on trade and security issues - is reminiscent of a China approach favored by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

During his tenure from 1998 to 2005 he repeatedly argued for overturning a EU weapons embargo against China, but his move was rejected at home by the Green party, his coalition partner, and abroad by other EU member states.

President Obama may prove to be more successful in altering US human rights policy toward China than Chancellor Schroeder was in his efforts to reframe the EU's China policy.

Still, argue experts, aside from human rights, Washington's approach toward Beijing is very much a continuation of long-standing US foreign policy.

"There are significant elements of continuity with the Bush policy on China," said Small.

Good grades

Josef Braml, a US expert with the German Council on Foreign Relations, agreed: "I think there is a continuity of American foreign policy toward China which can be labeled 'congagement,' a convergence of two diverting strategies - containment and engagement."

Relations between Washington and Beijing have improved under Obama to an extent that even when the US slapped tariffs on Chinese tires, the reaction from China was rather restrained.

"I think the Chinese have treated some of these trade and economic issues with some degree of equanimity, partly because of the policy on issues such as the Dalai Lama and contacts with Rabiya Kadeer as well have been placatory to the Chinese," said Small, adding that Obama's first year gets very good grades from Beijing:

"The Chinese expect a lot tensions usually in the first year of a new administration and the fact that it has been restricted largely to some of these trade issues in what is in any case a difficult time for all sides on the trade issues - and the Chinese themselves are not averse to some of these protectionist measures too - they see the overall tenor of this first year as very positive."

What's more, noted Braml, both the US and China are basically forced to get along, because they simply are dependent on each other.

"If one wanted to describe it with a strategic metaphor, there is a new MAD system - mutually assured destruction. China could destroy America if it pulled the trigger in terms of financing US debt, but it would also hurt itself."

With Beijing holding approximately two billion dollars, mostly in government bonds, it is a major financier of US debt.

However, a quick disposal of those funds would seriously undermine the value of the US dollar and by extension the ability of American consumers to buy Chinese products. Therefore both China and the US have an avid interest in good economic and political relations.

While Obama's so called concept of "strategic reassurance" has been successful on the political and economic front at least for now and Washington still hopes it will lead to improved Chinese cooperation on Iran and North Korea, progress is more difficult on military issues.

"This is an area where the blame that relations have not been improving on the military side lies very much with the Chinese," said Small.

"There have been a number of efforts on the US side to improve crisis management mechanisms, to upgrade relations between the two militaries and the pushback comes from the Chinese side."

Beijing still perceives Washington to be militarily superior and thinks the US will gain more from better cooperation than China, he said.

He predicts future tensions between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific region until the Chinese military changes its stance toward cooperation.

Euro-skeptic China

Despite the slow pace of improving military ties - something that the Bush administration had also worked on - relations between two of the world's major players have improved so much under Obama that there have been concerns about the so-called G2, the US and China, determining international policy with others left to follow.

"I don't think so," said Braml, adding that there remain many issues were the US and China don't see eye to eye and that Europe is still a more reliable partner and known quantity for Washington than China.

Small also doesn't believe that the US or China can actually decide alone, but that unless there is an agreement between them, it is very hard to achieve a global deal on an issue.

"And if you look on the Chinese side, there is a lot of what they would describe as Euro-skepticism where the China-European relationship has got to and a sense that US-China relations are continuing to move in a very good direction and if anything are being upgraded with the new administration which has led them to become even more US-centric than they were before."

The Obama administration's more pragmatic and multilateral approach to foreign policy places less of an emphasis on the traditional transatlantic relations than previous US governments.

"And that's meant that countries like China in particular and Russia are seeing quite a different environment and in some cases that is taking place at the expense of ties with Europe," said Small.

"The standing of Europe for the new administration you would have to say in the grand scheme of things is probably not as high as it was under Bush."

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge