EU Enlargement: What Comes Next?

On September 20, Latvia became the last of the candidate countries to approve membership in the European Union. Starting in March, nine of the ten candidates -- Cyprus ratified EU entry in parliament without a referendum -- began a series of referendums, all resulting in a strong public support for entering the bloc next May. But the long road to Brussels is not quite over for the would-be members, and before the current 15 members can officially welcome the 10 eastern European and Mediterranean countries into their group, several sticking points need to be ironed out.

The first step after the referendums is the ratification of the accession treaties by the old members. This is largely a formality and Germany and Denmark have already given their go-ahead. The other 13 current members should easily follow suit. Final entry for the new members will then take place on May 1, 2004.

Establishing the foundations for enlargement

Parallel to preparations for the "big bang" -- that is the largest round of expansion the EU has ever undertaken -- the 15 current members will work to resolve their differences over the EU constitution. Once the ink on the final wording has dried and all members have approved the first-ever constitution for Europe, it will serve as the foundation for a functional, enlarged EU. This is scheduled to take place in a series of intergovernmental talks at the beginning of October, in which all the 25 current and future members will meet in Rome to discuss their political goals and outline the job criteria for Europe’s institutions.

The basis for these discussions is the draft constitution presented back in July at the Convention on the Future of Europe. However, several aspects of the draft constitution have proven controversial, prompting concerns that the delicate compromises secured just three months ago will unravel.

Smaller EU members have objected to the proposal that the European Commission be reduced from the current 20 representatives to 15, which would mean that each member would not have a permanent representative. And they have also objected to efforts to replace the current six- month rotating presidency with a permanent one. They fear these changes favor larger states like Germany and France. The debate over voting procedures – whether to have an absolute majority or to weigh the votes -- remains another sticking point.

What's more, many of the larger and powerful EU members have different ideas about the nature of the Union: should it be supranational, whereby states would cede power in certain policy areas (for example, in economic and defense matters) to a higher EU authority, or should it be intergovernmental, whereby authority would remain firmly in the hands of national governments.

Can they get the job done in Rome?

Somehow, the 25 present and future EU members are going to have to iron out these differences. If they don't reach an agreement, the future of the Union hangs in the balance: the EU Constitution needs to be approved by five of the old EU members and all of the new members. A failure to get enough support could irreparably damage the enlargement process.

Some fear the intergovernmental conference in Rome may face the same fate as the Nice Summit in 2000. There, every state fought for itself, which, according to the president of the EU Commission Romano Prodi, meant that the Treaty of Nice did not contain the necessary reforms. He and others are hoping for better luck in Rome.

Ever enlarging Union, 2007 and beyond.

If all goes according to plan, the EU Constitution will be ratified in 2005. And then, in 2007, the EU can turn its attention to the next round of enlargement, as Bulgaria and Romania are scheduled to enter the Union, and the tricky and controversial question of Turkey as a member of the Union will be decided. In 2007 and beyond, the Balkans, including Croatia, Bosnia-Herzogovina, Serbia-Montenegro Macedonia and Albania, are scheduled to become members.

Those countries who are hoping to join the EU further down the road, will likely be watching the events of the next few months with a great deal of interest. A failure to successfully complete this round of enlargement will surely impact those still on the waiting list.