Dour mood

The people of Bosnia-Herzegovina are dissatisfied with their politicians, having taken to the streets in February this year to protest against corruption and nepotism. The gap between the average income among the population and that of the political elites has caused particular anger ahead of Sunday's parliamentary and presidential elections (12.10.2014). According to the country's tax authorities, the average monthly wage in the country is less than 400 euros ($505), and pensioners have to make do with around 150 euros. But, according to the same authority, members of the political elite take in between 3,000 and 5,000 euros a month.

Even the elections are unlikely to alter the catastrophic economic situation in the country where half of the people are unemployed. Joblessness among the young is as high as 72 percent - a record in Europe.

But only a small political movement emerged from February's protests: the so-called "First Party," which emphasizes its multiethnic character. Among younger people, the socially liberal "Our Party" is also very popular - but its success in the election is likely to be limited.

That's because the center-left Democratic Front and the Union for a Better Future, headed by media mogul Fahrudin Radoncic, both also benefitted from the protests. The latter is directed unambiguously at the Bosnian Muslims, and opinion polls show that the "ethnic parties" of the Bosnian Muslims, the Croats, and the Serbs are likely to gain the most votes on Sunday. Many critics accuse these parties of stirring nationalist resentments in order to gain more votes from whichever ethnic groups they claim to represent.

Ethnic division of power

Bosnia-Herzegovina consists of "entities," administrative areas, where three so-called "constitutive peoples" enjoy the same rights to govern the country. These structures were formed in 1995 at the peace treaty of Dayton, which marked the end of the bloody Bosnian war. The representatives of the Bosnian Serbs only signed the treaty under the condition that they be granted large-scale autonomy in the parts of the country they dominate. This led to the establishment of one the two country's two entities: "Republika Srpska."

The second entity consists of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is divided between Muslims, the Bosnian Croatians, who are mainly Catholic, while the Bosnian Serbs are mainly Serbian Orthodox. These three groups represent constitutive peoples of Bosnia-Herzegovina - they are the majority of the population and are supposed to have an equal stake in the political administration of the country.

That is reflected in the institution of the tripartite presidium. The country is not led by one president, but one from each of the three constitutive peoples. So, on Sunday, a Muslim, a Serb and a Croatian president will each be elected. On top of that, the Republika Srpska will also elect its own president.

Three presidents

The constitutional confusion, which Bosnians often refer to as the "Dejton" (Dayton), with a shrug, is the result of a historical compromise. In 1995, those directing the negotiations, principally the US, were mainly interested in bringing the hostile parties to the table. Twenty years later, almost no one is satisfied with "Dejton." The compromise has not proved capable of equipping the country for the future. On the contrary, the result of this division of power along ethnic lines has proved catastrophic in terms of social and economic development. The principle of the fair division of power has become the principle of the paralysis of power.

An example of that comes by way of an anecdote about former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. In 2005, she wanted to negotiate a constitutional reform with the leadership in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But all three presidents showed up to the talks. In her memoirs, Rice wrote that she had to address each of the three representatives by their full name, and each had their own pre-determined period of time to speak. But all initiatives aimed at improving the complicated 1995 construction were useless, and the economic and political inertia of the country continues. Corruption is rife, and there is barely any investment for infrastructure.

No help for flooded regions

A new study by the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which also keeps an office in Bosnia Herzegovina, supports this diagnosos: in 2014, 64 percent of tax revenue flowed into the state apparatus, "without building a single road, school, or hospital." That can't be true, says Bosnian journalist Zoran Catic, and jokes: "If it says 64 percent, in reality, 94 percent of the state revenue went straight into the politicians' pockets."

He says he sees the consequences of this mismanagement every day. Apart from his work as a journalist for the student broadcaster in Sarajevo, he also runs workshops for children and young people to help them find work. He makes short films with them, allows them to tell their stories and helps them to come to terms with their traumas. The children all come from regions that suffered the most from May's catastrophic floods.

"Months have now passed since the floods - a lot of foreign money was spent on the reconstruction of ruined buildings and streets, but in many areas nothing happened," says Catic. According to the 44-year-old, this shows that the established structures of Bosnia-Herzegovina have prevented development in the country. And Sunday's elections are unlikely to change that.