Donald Trump would have little chance in Germany — poll

The world is watching the last days of the US election campaign on tenterhooks — but, if the election on November 5 were to be held in Germany, it seems Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would easily beat former President Donald Trump.

Pollsters infratest-dimap, working on behalf of the public broadcaster ARD, asked German voters which of the candidates they found more convincing, and the answer was clear: 74% said Harris, while Republican candidate Trump could persuade only 11% of respondents. The Deutschlandtrend poll questioned a total of 1,333 people in Germany, selected according to representative criteria.

Trump performed better only among supporters of the far-right anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party — 41% of whom preferred him to Harris, while 26% trusted her more. The rest of the AfD supporters surveyed expressed little confidence in either candidate.

Germans who support Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Greens favored Harris with majorities ranging from 90% to 92%. Among those who support the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), 61% favored Harris, while Trump had to make do with 14%.

The reasons for the clear majority in favor of Harris are varied. A Democratic victory would widely be considered better for German-American relations and the German economy. But many Germans also appear to see Harris as the better candidate on issues like the climate crisis, security in Europe and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Fear for their jobs

Domestically, the poll showed that a majority of Germans are worried about the increasing amount of negative economic news. Almost three-quarters of respondents said they were worried that Germany is losing its position as a business location.

Some four out of 10 respondents doubted that they will be able to maintain their current standard of living, while almost one in five working people said they were worried about their job security.

The German government's response to the economic news has done little to convince people: Only around one in eight respondents expressed a favorable opinion of budget or economic policy of the coalition of SPD, Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) under Scholz.

And how should the sluggish economy in Germany be stimulated? Some 54% are in favor of lowering corporate taxes, while 34% are against it. A good two-thirds would find investment aid helpful in getting the economy back on track for growth.

Early elections no longer unthinkable

The poor image of the federal government is reflected in the question of whether Scholz's coalition should serve out the rest of its term, due to end with the general election in September 2025: 41% were in favor, with some 54% against. Among supporters of the governing parties SPD and Greens, however, a majority of well over 70% are in favor of the coalition continuing.

In contrast, among AfD circles, almost everyone, some 93%, is hoping for an early election. Among supporters of the center-right CDU, which has been leading the polls for months, almost 70% hope for an early end to the government. Among the BSW, the figure stood at three out of four.

AfD in second place

The survey suggested the conservative CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, would emerge as clear winners from a federal election if it were held now. With some 34% (+3), the CDU/CSU achieved its best poll rating in Germany since February 2021.

The AfD would remain the second-strongest party with an unchanged 17%, followed closely by the SPD at 16%. The Greens would reach 11% (-2), and the BSW 6% (-2).

The currently governing FDP would get 4% (+1) of the vote, which would mean it would drop out of Bundestag. All the other parties, including the socialist Left Party, would achieve a total of just 12%.

This article was originally written in German.

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