Donald Trump's vision for the US economy

Donald Trump has some clear ideas for the US economy should he win in November as the Republican candidate in presidential elections.

Based on what he has said, some fear geopolitical chaos and trade wars. Others are excited, feeling that his so-called America First policies will bring jobs back to the US.

Even though Trump's first stint in the White House had mixed results when it came to the economy, many voters still say they trust him to handle it better than the Democrats.

Joe Biden, the current president, has not been able to sell his ideas on the economy to the American public. In a mid-July poll by the Economist and YouGov, 51% disapproved of the way Biden is handling jobs and the economy, and 58% don't like how he is dealing with inflation and prices. A total of 54% of respondents said the economy was getting worse overall.

Now that Biden has dropped out of the race and endorsed Kamala Harris, the cards are being reshuffled regarding who's to blame for this dire situation. 

More of the same from Republicans?

Right now, inflation and price hikes are a major problem as ordinary people feel the squeeze. In that same poll, 25% of respondents said inflation and prices were the most important issues at the moment, well above immigration, jobs and the economy.

At the Republican National Convention on July 18, Trump shared his vision for the country in his 90-minute nomination acceptance speech.

"We will restore the republic, and we will usher in the rich and wonderful tomorrow people so truly deserve," he said. "America's future will be bigger, better, bolder, brighter, happier, stronger, freer, greater and more united than ever before."

In general, most of Trump's economic ideas are not much different from his first time in power. He is bound to stick to tough talk, tariffs and tax cuts. What is different are his experience and determination.

"Trump ran into many different roadblocks in his first term. Roadblocks that he is determined to remove right away," said Dan Mallinson, an associate professor of public policy and administration at Pennsylvania State University in Harrisburg who studies policymaking.

Trump's choice of J.D. Vance as running mate is another clear message to businesses. Vance, who once worked in venture capital, is a critic of immigration and big business. He has called for Big Tech giants to be broken up and wants to focus on homegrown manufacturing and industry. 

Big tariffs for non-US goods

For Trump, one way to boost US manufacturing is tariffs, and he has a whole slew of them ready to implement.

He has suggested a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the US and an extraordinarily aggressive 60% tariff on all things from China.

In response, other countries would surely raise countertariffs, which could again lead to trade-war-like conditions. Even if American courts stopped some of them, huge damage will have been done with the stroke of a pen.

But it might not be as bad as some fear. "Trump has tended toward protectionism, but had a mixed record in the success of those measures and others to invest in manufacturing here," Mallinson told DW.

Deporting more working immigrants

Yet Trump cannot rule alone and is backed by the Republicans and their 2024 GOP Platform, a 16-page document listing the party's intentions.

The election platform, which was released a week before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, is short on details. It pushes America First ideas like cutting regulations, bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US and deregulating the energy industry.

There is also a push to seal the border with Mexico to stop illegal immigration and "carry out the largest deportation operation in American history."

Closing borders and deportations may not seem to have a lot to do with the economy, but they would have wide-ranging consequences. Besides creating a humanitarian crisis, deporting millions of immigrants would make finding workers even harder in a country with tight labor shortages.

At the same time, the Republicans want to introduce "Buy American and Hire American" policies that would ban companies that outsource jobs from doing business with the federal government.

Other Republican economic ideas

Trump and the Republicans additionally want to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, and make tips for restaurant and hospitality workers exempt from income tax.

All these tax cuts plus promised tariffs and deportations could worsen the deficit, push up wages and add to inflation, argue experts.

"So while he is talking a lot about inflation, it's not clear that his economic policies are positioned to address it," Mallinson said. On the other hand, the economy is bigger than a single president "so it's not like things will change in an instant."

Whereas Trump has been clear about what he wants, Kamala Harris has yet to lay out her economic vision. Her statements to date indicate that she is likely to stick to many of Biden's economic plans, which she supported as vice president.

She is expected to keep backing workers' rights, renewable energy production and bringing strategic technical manufacturing like semiconductors back to the US. Global trade will remain important, but some import tariffs are likely to stay in place.

Right now the economy is looking pretty strong, but the Democrats are not getting credit for it, said Mallinson. "A lot of that comes down to pocketbook voting. Voters tend to think about how their pocketbook is doing, not how great the overall economy may be."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler