Croatia's too-perfect political split

Voters in Croatia have started to cast their ballots in the early parliamentary poll, which is unlikely to produce a clear winner. Opinion polls suggest that neither the conservative Croatian Democratic Union, known as HDZ, nor the left-leaning Social Democrats (SDP) and their People's Coalition, will win enough votes to rule alone.

The head of the Croatian electoral commission, Branko Hrvatin, called on the nation's 3.7 million voters to make use of their right to vote.

"This is the first snap election we have ever had, and I believe that the voters have an even greater responsibility for the political situation and the state of our democracy," he said.

Croatia found itself in a strange situation in mid-June: The center-right government led by the technocrat Tihomir Oreskovic was overthrown in a vote of no-confidence that had originated in the coalition. Tomislav Karamarko, the chairman of the governing HDZ, had wanted to form a new majority in parliament and become prime minister himself, but that plan backfired when he could not form a new majority. The only way out of the self-made standoff would be new elections. Karamarko had to resign as leader of the HDZ.

The short-lived HDZ rule was marked by a shift to the right and a growing climate of intolerance in the country, including attacks on ethnic Serbs and other minorities.

Morana, who is a 27-year-old teacher from Zagreb, said she would support SDP.

"With HDZ in power we have witnessed Croatia flirting with values that are inconceivable for a modern European country," Morana told the AFP news agency.

In turn, 39-year-old administrator Marko Tomic said that he was voting for HDZ, praising the new party leadership for "modern, European perspective."

HDZ moves to center

According to the polls, Sunday's elections are unlikely to simplify anything. The two main blocs - the conservative HDZ and the small Croatian Social Liberal Party on one side of the political spectrum and the center-left coalition led by the SDP on the other - will probably only win about 30 percent of the vote each, but that will not be enough to form a government.

The HDZ has already split from the small right-wing parties with which it had formed the governing coalition after last November's elections. And it was only in July that the party's newly elected chairman, Andrej Plenkovic, revealed his centrist leanings and began to make public appearances. Polls say he hasn't made much of an impression on the voters. Like the HDZ, however, the SDP has also shifted toward the center. SDP chairman Zoran Milanovic has even poached the HDZ's smaller coalition partner, the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS). Like the HDZ, it is also a member of the EU-wide center-right European People's Party coalition, but domestically it now sides with the left-liberal alliance.

Both of Croatia's major parties have promised more foreign investment, the creation of new jobs and a reduction in unemployment, which stands at about 14 percent. But few citizens believe that either will succeed: Similar promises have been made in the past, but they have never been kept.

No natural partners

Surveys suggest that both the HDZ and SDP would have a difficult time forming an alliance. The strongest of the smaller faction parties is Most (Bridge), a loose association of successful local politicians and junior partners in the present government. After a turbulent separation from many left-leaning members, Most is now more or less conservative, but would likely prove a difficult coalition partner.

For starters, Most`s leader Bozo Petro would prefer a government without a coalition agreement - and only for as long as its decisions continued to suit his bloc. Many people do not view Most as a reform-oriented party. This is also evident in the polls. Most can currently only expect half of the votes it received just 10 months ago. Taking it on as an ally would not be enough to tip the scales for either HDZ or SDP.

Swing voters might be more swayed by Zivi zid (Living Wall), a youthful anarchist-solidarity party that sees itself as the voice of the disenfranchised. Zivi zid has drawn attention through often-unsuccessful campaigns against the forced evictions of people who are heavily in debt. However, Zivi zid blames the major parties for Croatia's economic and social woes, and would therefore also make an unlikely coalition partner.

Whoever carves out a majority in Croatia's next parliament will inherit a heavy burden. The economy is growing faster than expected: 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2016 compared to the same quarter last year. Even tourism revenues have broken all records, especially with fewer travelers heading to Turkey or the Middle East. At the same time, Croatia must repay a 4 billion-euro ($4.5 billion) debt next year. That is twice as much as this year and about a quarter of the state budget. A lack of prospects has forced many young and well-educated people to emigrate.

Croatia's new government will also have to focus its efforts on improving relations with neighbors. The strains with Serbia and Bosnia-Hercegovina have been further poisoned by SDP chairman Milanovic, who referred to the former as "a handful of miserable people" and used a strong expletive to insult the latter. Good relations with the neighboring countries would gain increased importance if, for example, refugees begin traversing the countries on the Balkan land route to the European Union.