Heavyweight or Clown?

Thierry Vircoulon is the ICG's Project Director for Central Africa focusing on governance and security sector reform.

Deutsche Welle: Etienne Tshisekedi has so far stood his ground, insisting that he is the legitimate President of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Will he achieve his goals or is he just a laughing stock as some critics have called him?

Thierry Vircoulon: I think right now that declaration is a bit of hot air. They have done this sort of thing before, and it was also done in Gabon after the last presidential elections. This kind of political technique has already proven to be ineffective. I was in Kinshasa not long ago, and the feeling I got is that not many people are willing to take the risk of supporting his claims of being the next president.

On Sunday he ordered the Congolese armed forces to obey him and disobey President Kabila. He also offered a "big prize" for anyone who captures the current president. How is the army going to respond?

I think there will be no response. The security forces may be divided on several lines, but it's very doubtful that some elements of the security forces will actually take the risk of rebelling. The police was involved in the repression over the last two weeks, and there were some rumors which were a bit disturbing for the police forces but no one in Kinshasa witnessed any form of rebellious behaviour by the security forces.

Why does he keep on insisting again and again that he is the elected president?

It may have been a provocative strategy at one stage, but I think it's because he has used that technique in the past. He is an old man, 79 years old, I believe. He still thinks this technique may work. I am skeptical about this and I believe the only response he may get from the government is to be ignored.

Results that have been ratified by Congo's top court have confirmed Kabila as the winner with almost 49 percent of the vote to Tshisekedi's 32 percent, so how much backing does he have in his own political party and outside?

We must distinguish between the popular support that he got from the voters, because 32 percent is quite a good result. It is very clear that his real support was probably when the people voted. The stronghold of his political party is Western Kasai, Eastern Kasai and the capital Kinshasa. That's where his "Union for Democracy and Social Progress" (UDPF) is rooted. But on November 28, his political party managed to get some votes in other provinces because he embodied the opposition. A lot of people who were not UDPF supporters voted for him, but I think with time this support will shrink. He should have focused more on the popular vote, but I don't see that happening.

He used very strong and sometimes controversial statements during his campaign. Some people fear that he might be responsible for triggering a civil war again, should people be worried about his remarks?

There was actually a lot of tension at the end of the electoral campaign, and during the week of the vote itself. People were worried at this stage, there was a clash between his supporters and security forces in Kinshasa and several people were killed. But I think at the moment we may see a decrease of the tension in Kinshasa. When I was there I got the feeling that little by little, life is returning to normal.

What do you think will happen on Friday, the day he has announced for his swearing-in ceremony?

I think he will be prevented from doing the ceremony publicly at least. He will then be forced to do it in his home district and further than that we will have to wait and see what happens.

Interview: Asumpta Lattus/cm
Editor: Daniel Pelz / rm