China 'testing' ASEAN

Violence recently broke out in Vietnam over the deployment of a Chinese oil platform to a part of the South China Sea that is also claimed by Vietnam. More than 20 people have died reportedly died in the riots. According to official figures, the protestors set some 15 factories ablaze and damaged 100 others. The affected factories and companies belonged to China, Taiwan, and South Korea.

In a DW interview, Southeast Asia expert Gerhard Will says that Beijing is testing the solidarity of members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with Vietnam and examining how much US support Hanoi can rely upon.

DW: Did you expect the protests to turn violent?

Gerhard Will: I did not expect that. The protests make clear the potential for violence within Vietnamese society. In retrospect, it is quite understandable why the protests became so violent. The Vietnamese government has long hesitated as to whether they should allow demonstrations at all. But having finally allowed them, the government has now realized that they can also turn ugly. Of course, this was not Hanoi's intention.

As you hinted, the Vietnamese government was not in favor of demonstrations against China. Do you think the permission to hold protests is a fundamental change of policy on the part of the government?

The Vietnamese government has no clear strategy about it. On the one hand, it wants to exploit nationalism for its own legitimacy, and on the other, it is aware that heightened nationalism can lead to a situation it won't be able to control. This is also one of the reasons why the recent protests have escalated.

How would you describe the Sino-Vietnamese relations considering the dynamics at play in the South China Sea?

The relations between China and Vietnam are not steady - they move between two poles. On one side, the communist parties of both countries cooperate. Politically and economically, China and Vietnam pursue a similar course. On the other side, there are significant contradictions which are not only related to their past, but are also linked to the present situation. These are mainly reflected in territorial disputes. The territorial conflicts have economic motives, but they are also about nationalism, which both governments want to use for their legitimacy.

In your opinion, what were Beijing's reasons for setting up the oil rig in these disputed waters?

Given that experts believe there aren't any large crude oil deposits in this region, one has to assume that political calculations were behind China's decision to place the oil rig so close to the Vietnamese coastline. It remains unclear, however, why the Chinese government took this step at this time. I believe Beijing wants to test how far ASEAN's solidarity with Vietnam will go. The Chinese also want to find out how much US support Hanoi and Manila can rely upon.

How resilient is ASEAN?

ASEAN hasn't been able to find common ground on China. Member states have diverging interests. Not all of them are involved in territorial disputes and some even believe a stonger cooperation with China would be more benefitial to them. China's "test" is therefore having an impact.

According to media reports, China's foreign minister told his Indonesian counterpart that China had urged Vietnam to "calm down" and respect China's sovereignty. Has China perhaps overestimated its position?

I think China's request to Indonesia to mediate in the conflict is a clever move by the Chinese. On the one hand, it aims to show how divided ASEAN is. On the other hand, it aims to signal China's willingness to talk.

Beijing was certainly not expecting the strong reactions that are now coming from Vietnam. After realizing that the latest move has brought Hanoi and Manila closer together, China is now starting to backtrack. This is proof that China is not following a totally consistent strategy in the South China Sea.

Gerhard Will is a Southeast expert who, among other things, used to work at the Asia group of the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs – SWP.