'China and the US have a duty'

DW: North Korea has increased its troops on the Korean border, declaring it is in "a quasi-state of war in frontline areas," according to media reports. What does this move mean for the already tense Korean Peninsula and the relations between Pyongyang and Seoul?

Rüdiger Frank: It means that we are once again experiencing a period of armed escalation after many years of calm. Since 2013, the situation on the peninsula has been pretty quiet, but now it seems that the same old game has restarted. No one can tell how the situation will unfold.

It is not the first time that the North Korea communist regime has ordered the troops to be prepared for war. How big is the risk that it could actually trigger a major military confrontation, particularly after the shelling on the border from both sides on Thursday?

First, we have to look at the situation inside North Korea, where Kim Jong Un is trying to consolidate his power, and which has been visible in his decisions to make "political changes" and disappearances of his rivals. These things show that Kim is not totally sure about his complete power in the country and by ratcheting up war rhetoric he is trying to divert attention from domestic problems.

The situation on such a heavily armed border would quickly escalate if there are casualties on either side. So it could all get out of control in the event of an accident. That is why I think the situation at the moment is very serious. I hope the crisis will ultimately be resolved.

The current crisis is a result of a landmine explosion in early August, which the South blamed on North Korea. After that, Seoul started broadcasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda into North Korean territory at the border area, something which the two nations had not done for eleven years. Eventually, the North issued an ultimatum to the South that if the loudspeaker announcements did not stop within 48 hours, it would reply with military actions. South Korea didn't pay heed to the North's warning. How do you assess Seoul's attitude in the whole conflict?

If a country sets up huge loudspeakers along the border of an enemy state, it is bound to provoke the other side. The problem is that the South Korean government has been in an uncomfortable situation for quite some time because slowly but surely the people in the country are considering it a toothless tiger. The government is trying to demonstrate strength now. And this approach is getting an equal response from the rulers in Pyongyang.

Both regimes in North and South Korea are facing domestic pressures, which are reflected in their foreign policy. That is the real problem: When you use ultimatums or draw red lines, you limit your own options. You are then forced to act if the other party chooses to ignore the ultimatum, or crosses the red line. It is generally not a very wise behavior to make such warnings and ultimatums because then, at some point, the government has an obligation to act.

To what extent are the other countries in the region obliged to react to the situation on the Korean Peninsula?

I believe it is very much a duty of regional and international powers, like China and the US, to defuse tensions. They have to do something because the two Koreas, in my opinion, won't be able to solve this problem in a peaceful manner.

Rüdiger Frank is Professor of East Asian studies at the University of Vienna.

The interview was conducted by Esther Felden.