Czech elections

Social Democrat leader Jiri Paroubek said his leftist party's showing in Saturday's general election was "certainly not a success" and it was clear the country was headed for a right-wing coalition, prompting him to resign as party chairman.

"It seems that people have chosen the direction the republic should go in, and it is a different direction than the one the Social Democrats were offering," Paroubek said after partial results showed center-right parties trumping his party with a majority.

With almost all votes counted, the Social Democrats (CSSD) are in the lead in the Czech elections with 22.1 percent of the vote. But center-right parties also made large gains, making a coalition between the Social Democrats' main rival, the Civic Democrats and other conservative parties a distinct possibility.

The Civic Democrats, led by Petr Necas, have gained 20.2 percent of the vote, according to the Czech statistics office. The new, conservative, party TOP09 managed 16.6 percent and another newcomer, the centrist Public Affairs Party, achieved 10.9 percent of the vote. The Communist Party has received 11.3 percent.

"If [the results] are confirmed, it would mean a big chance for creating a coalition of fiscal responsibility, a coalition this country needs in these hard times, a coalition we are ready for," Necas told reporters on Saturday.

The poll ends the rule of a caretaker cabinet in place for the past 14 months.

Enduring rivalry

Inconclusive election results have marred the Czech Republic in recent years and prevented reforms. The two leading parties' enduring rivalry and ideological disagreements make a grand coalition almost unthinkable.

"Therefore the minor groups can capitalize on the disappointment of both major parties, to become kingmakers," said Prague political theorist Jiri Pehe.

The Czech Republic has had 14 months of interim government, with a neutral cabinet headed by Prime Minister Jan Fischer. The previous center-right coalition led by the ODS collapsed half-way through Czech presidency of the EU.

Political deadlock

In March 2009, four rebel MPs defected in a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek. His government had ended seven months of political deadlock, after June 2006 parliamentary elections saw center-right and center-left allies each with 100 seats in the 200-seat lower house.

Jan Fischer, the non-partisan former leader of the country's statistics office, became caretaker premier until elections could be held. They were planned for October 2009, but the constitutional court ruled that it was not legitimate to shorten a government term and postponed them until now.

The young country's financial progress has been hampered by a succession of minority governments and lengthy coalition-building periods since its first election after independence in 1996.

Disagreements on spending

Although the state budget deficit is much smaller than in many other EU countries, the election campaign has been dominated by the need to balance the books.

Right-wing parties had warned that a leftist victory could lead to a Greek-style financial meltdown. His party is looking to form a coalition with conservative TOP 09, and has pledged to curb benefits abuse.

The Social Democrats plan to raise income tax for the highest wage earners in order to boost welfare payments. The center-left party is against raising the number of Czech troops in Afghanistan, unlike its center-right opponents.

A way back in

If, as forecast, the center-left Social Democrats win the most seats, their most likely allies are the ostracized Communist party.

Even the leader of the opposing Civic Democrats has acknowledged the compatibility of the left-leaning parties. "Given the conditions the Social Democrats have set, the KSCM remains practically the only partner for them," said Petr Necas.

Twenty years after totalitarian communist rule collapsed in the former Czechoslovakia, the party continues to play an important role in Czech politics. Popularity among elder voters has allowed it to consistently command enough seats in parliament's lower house to prevent other parties creating strong ruling coalitions.

Those parties have pledged never to cooperate with the Czech Communists, who are ranked among the least reformed from the ex-Soviet bloc and, unlike other leftist parties, have not shed the 'communist' label. But they have been slowly eroding that reluctance, and have been working in coalition with the Social Democrats in two of 14 Czech regions since 2008.

"I can quite easily imagine cooperation with the KSCM," said Jaroslav Palas, Social Democrat regional governor in Moravia-Silesia.

Although a formal coalition is unlikely, analysts expect the Social Democrats to form a minority government, relying on the backing of the Communists in vital confidence votes.

Final election results are expected on Saturday evening and Sunday, with the alliance-building process anticipated to take weeks, if not months.

ng/tms/dpa/AP/AFP/Reuters
Editor: Sonia Phalnikar