Russian overtures

Cyber attacks on the Estonian government, the capping of gas supplies to parts of Europe, and, most notably, Russia's war with Georgia last year are just some of the events that have angered and unsettled its western neighbors in recent years.

In particular, the Kremlin's erratic behavior has rekindled the slumbering fears of former Soviet satellites, such as the Baltic states and Poland.

At the end of November, President Dmitry Medvedev tabled a proposed pact that is purportedly aimed at overcoming the "legacy" of the Cold War by creating a new Euro-Atlantic security framework.

The draft treaty would have signatory countries agree to NATO-like security pledges, in which in the case of an attack on one of its members they would rally to its defense, and refrain from "any other actions significantly affecting the security of any other parties."

A genuine offer?

So is Russia's call for a new security architecture to be taken seriously? Or is it just a way of thwarting the further eastward expansion of NATO, allowing the Kremlin to argue, for example, that Ukraine joining the alliance would constitute a threat to Russian security? Questions like these are being explored by policymakers, military chiefs and academics at a two-day security conference in Berlin this week.

NATO and EU policy has been marked since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact by an absence of a strategic approach toward Russia, according to political expert Henning Schroeder.

This drift in relations has been exacerbated recently by the change of administration in the United States and of government in Germany, traditionally one of the European countries closest to Russia.

Time to talk

Schroeder believes that that the time has come for dialog. "We need to ask ourselves how we can provide for security in Eastern Europe. Georgia was an alarm signal," he told Deutsche Welle.

"We cannot afford to have Russia continuing to act like a loose cannon. It needs to be integrated," said Schroeder, who is head of the research group on Russia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs..

He would like to see Russia become an integrated part of an enlarged Europe in 20 years' time. NATO and Europe should take up Medvedev's initiative, according to Schroeder, but put economic and human rights' issues on the agenda in addition to military security. He is under no illusion about how difficult this is likely to prove.

In the meantime, one step toward defusing tensions could be to reactivate lapsed confidence-building measures, such as giving advance warning about planned military maneuvers, for example.

Divided we stand

One stumbling block in formulating a common western approach to the Kremlin has been divisions among EU member states, according to Alexander Rahr at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

"We don't know what to do with Russia. There are different views inside Europe. European countries like Germany and France would love a strategic partnership with Russia. Countries like Poland and others such as Britain are very suspicious of Russia," Rahr told Deutsche Welle.

While acknowledging that Russia has created grounds for suspicions among its neighbors, the Russia expert fears that there could be a return to a kind of Cold War, if allies ignore Medvedev's initiative. He believes that it is imperative to bring Russia back from isolation.

"At the heart of this problem is how to build a European house with Russia inside it. Europe is also geography, culture, the home of Christianity. Russia does not want to come back into eastern Europe, but having lost Europe once, Russia has a fear of being locked outside its cultural heritage," said Rahr.

Structural problems

Other problems include organizational weaknesses within the European Union and a lack of coordination and clear division of labor between the EU and NATO, who share many of the same members.

Michael Emerson, associate research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies, believes that the EU has to boost its credibility as a security and foreign policy actor, if it wants Russia to become "a more congenial neighbor."

NATO's most powerful member, the United States has also made mistakes. Emerson sees former US president George W. Bush's decision to back NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia as misguided. "It was seen as a provocation by Russia and neither of those countries were ready to join," he told Deutsche Welle.

The United States has also largely had its attention turned to the security situation in Afghanistan and Iran, rather than in Europe.

Constanze Stelzenmueller, senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, believes that NATO faces a difficult balancing act trying to reconcile the need for better territorial defense in the Eastern periphery, while conducting operations further afield.

While Stelzenmueller is skeptical about the chances of success of Medvedev's draft security treaty, she acknowledges that NATO will require Russia's assistance, if it is to tackle many of the major security challenges currently facing the world.

"If we want to deal with Iran, Afghanistan, counterproliferation and arms control, we are going to need the Russians," she told Deutsche Welle.

Author: Julie Gregson
Editor: Rob Mudge