Can EU engage a former al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria?

The European Union, like most of the international community, was shocked at how quickly the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad collapsed after coming under attack by rebels, led by a former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

The EU has welcomed Assad's fall, but is unsure how it should deal with the rebel group and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the nom de guerre of 42-year-old Ahmad al-Sharaa.

An EU spokesperson told reporters that the bloc has had no contact with the leading Syrian rebels, an extremist Islamist group designated a terrorist outfit by the United Nations and various Western governments, including the United States.

The EU faces many challenges in dealing with al-Golani and his group, but it's currently in wait-and-see mode to evaluate how the rebels will act in the weeks and months ahead. 

Can the EU talk with a former al-Qaeda affiliate? 

A cursory look at al-Golani's resume explains the EU's trepidation. He joined al-Qaeda to fight the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and was incarcerated in Bucca jail, where he spent time with members of various jihadi groups with a global agenda. 

In an interview with US broadcaster PBS, al-Golani admitted years ago that upon his return to his homeland, he procured financial support from the so-called "Islamic State" (IS), which for a time occupied large swaths of Iraq and Syria. In a turf war between al-Qaeda and IS, he chose the former, but in 2016, al-Golani severed ties with al-Qaeda and presented himself as a nationalist Islamist with the goal of overthrowing Assad.

Al-Golani has now achieved his goal and is currently in control of Syrian regions that were ruled by the Assad government. But he is still a wanted man, and the US is offering a reward of $10 million (€9.5 million) for information that could lead to his capture. Some analysts believe it may be time to lift the terrorist designation both on al-Golani and HTS — with some conditions. 

"Designation de-listing is a complex & unwieldy issue," Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, posted on X.

"My understanding is that sequenced conditions will be put on the table for #HTS to meet — involving military, political & governance reforms, and moves toward accountability for prior documented crimes."

Accusations of killings, torture in detention centers

Syrians in HTS-controlled Idlib have protested against practices by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham "including torture and death in detention" since February 2024, according to a UN report issued in September.

A 2022 country report by the United States on human rights in Syria said armed groups such as "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham committed a wide range of abuses, including killings, kidnappings, physical abuse, and recruitment or use of child soldiers." The report also charged several other Syrian rebel groups of engaging in the same conduct.  

A Human Rights Watch statement said that in 2019 at least six former detainees were tortured while in HTS custody.

But al-Golani has denied involvement, and recently told CNN that abuses "were not done under our orders or directions" and that those responsible had been held accountable. 

Inclusive government essential for Western recognition 

The EU, however, has a litany of concerns. The 27-member bloc is concerned about the safety of minorities, the rights of women and equal representation for various opposition groups. 

One of the major reasons the EU did not rehabilitate Assad — even though key players in the Middle East invited him back into the fold — was his refusal to implement UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which called for a political transition. 

"We call for a calm and inclusive political transition as well as the protection of all Syrians, including all minorities," Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, posted on X soon after HTS and al-Golani took over Damascus. 

So far, HTS has promised the safety of religious minorities, declared amnesty for all Syrian soldiers, decided to cooperate with Syria's former prime minister to form a transitional government and said women would not be told how to dress. 

Some analysts have suggested that the EU must seize the opportunity and actively get involved in influencing the rebels — for the sake of Syrians as well as for its own interests. 

EU should 'incentivize a positive trajectory'

More than a million Syrians fled to the EU at the peak of the nearly 14-year Syrian war and continue to be among the largest community of asylum-seekers. Several political groups in the bloc have argued for deporting Syrians, and several member states, including Germany, paused the processing of pending asylum applications less than 48 hours after Assad's exit from Damascus. 

Julien Barnes-Dacey, the director of the Middle East & North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW that the EU must channel significant political attention and resources to the formation of an inclusive government in Syria.

He said the EU must "quickly and meaningfully work to incentivize a positive trajectory" as HTS signals a change in its thinking. 

"This is the only viable pathway towards securing European interests, whether it be regional stability and preventing new conflict and terrorism; allowing millions of Syrians to finally return home; or permanently diluting the hostile regional influence of external powers like Russia," he told DW in a written response.  

While some experts said the HTS may have moderated its ideology, others are more skeptical and suspect it to be just a PR campaign. 

Real transformation or a PR stunt?

"HTS is trying to show a friendly face right now, to get the maximum Syrian buy-in to their project of building a new regime and to minimize friction with Western and Arab states. That's not necessarily always going to be the case," Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century Foundation think tank, told DW.

"When under threat, groups like this will nearly always fall back on their original and most solid base, which in HTS' case is its jihadi hard core," he added. 

The EU is aware of the dangers and has, for now, adopted a cautious approach to determine whether the HTS transformation is genuine or merely a PR stunt. The bloc's policy depends on how the HTS and its leader act going forward. 

"As HTS takes on greater responsibilities, we will need to assess not just their words, but also their actions," said EU spokesperson Anouar El Anouni.

Edited by: Sean M. Sinico