Bundesliga title race is real, but Bayern still favorites

How late in the year does it have to be before the reality of a different Bundesliga champion can genuinely be entertained?

Borussia Dortmund continue to deliver strong arguments that a new champion is possible. Upstarts Union Berlin are still in the hunt, but after their recent humbling in Munich and a tired looking draw at home against Cologne perhaps they are running their own race.

Edin Terzic's side have won eight straight in the league and are level on points with the defending champions. The last time the club won this many in a row was back in the 2011/12 season, when Jürgen Klopp was the head coach and they ended up winning the title — which was also the last time a team not called Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga.

Furthermore, Dortmund are making fewer mistakes, questions about their mentality have clearly been answered and this time last year, Bayern were six points clear of their rivals in black and yellow. The possibility of a new champion is both seductive and compelling.

History on Bayern's side

History though, says otherwise.

Two seasons ago, RB Leipzig were just two points behind Bayern Munich after 23 games and Bayern ended up winning the title by 13 points. The season before that, Bayern were one point ahead of RB Leipzig and four ahead of Dortmund at this point of the season, and Bayern ended the campaign with 82 points while Dortmund trailed in second with 69.

And perhaps most memorable is the 2018/19 season. Borussia Dortmund let a nine-point lead after 15 games slip. By the time matchday 23 had finished, Dortmund were ahead by just three points. The fight continued with Dortmund pulling two points clear again on matchday 27, but when Bayern beat Dortmund 5-0 the tide turned and Germany's most successful club edged out Dortmund by two points in one of the most thrilling seasons to date.

Bayern belief

Along with the past, the present Bayern Munich team is also very capable of defending the crown.

With Jamal Musiala and a resurgent Thomas Müller, this side has a lot of quality.

Granted, Julian Nagelsmann's team might have already drawn seven games this season — the last and only time they have drawn that many games in the last decade was in the 2016/17 season, and it took 30 games — but they have only lost twice, and they do score a lot more than anyone else.

Against Stuttgart, it was Matthijs de Ligt scoring from range and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting delivering another reminder why he is an underrated choice at number nine. Bayern's goals are proof of their strength in depth, their +44 goal difference matters right now and could be decisive in May, too.

Those goals are the reason Bayern are top after 23 games. In the last 10 seasons, only in the aforementioned 2018/19 campaign have Bayern Munich not been top at this point in the season. In that time period, it has never been this close at this stage of the season, which is why excitement about the possibility of a new champion is only natural.

Put that feeling into the ​​​​​​current discourse around competition in football, particularly in Germany, and it's clear to see how impactful a different team winning the Bundesliga this season would be for German football and those arguing the 50+1 ownership structure does not compromise competition.

In the last decade, challengers in March have not stopped Bayern. The last time they did was in 2012 when Borussia Dortmund delivered an eight-game winning streak that ended in early March. Perhaps history is repeating itself after all.

Edited by: Mark Hallam