Broadcast Gap

To Sandra Kern, the idea of having being stuck with re-runs rather than new episodes the US-hit series "Lost" is very upsetting.

"Right now, I keep Monday nights free of other commitments," the 32-year old said from her home in Cologne. "If there were only re-runs I'd probably do something besides watch TV, because I wouldn't want to have to watch something else."

But Kern and other German viewers are unlikely to be faced with re-runs of "Lost" as the ProSieben channel still has 15 of season three's 22 episodes and can fall back on the eight episodes of season four that were already produced before the US writers' strike began on Nov. 5.

"The gap between the broadcast dates has kept us from feeling any real effects of the strike," ProSieben spokeswoman Katja Pichler said.

Germans hoping for an agreement -- soon

But the gap isn't as large for other series. The fourth, and newest, season of "Grey's Anatomy," also shown on ProSieben, is set to start in Germany in February. While the 11 shows produced before the strike began are waiting to be broadcast in Germany, Pichler said the channel has not decided what it will do if no new episodes arrive from the US.

"We are hoping the strike will end, and that we don't have to change our schedule," she said, adding that ProSieben needs six months to dub an episode of an American series into German.

RTL, another major commercial German TV station, also said it has not yet determined how it will react if it runs out of "CSI," "House M.D." or "Law and Order" episodes, according to spokesman Claus Richter.

"We don't have to be worried until autumn 2008," Richter said. "Half the episodes for RTL's series are ready and will be aired. After that, we'll have to decide if we show re-runs or something completely different."

Sticking with US staples

But neither ProSieben nor RTL, which regularly compete for the best ratings in the lucrative 14-49 age group, said they are planning to make any long-term changes to their programming based on the strike, and that they would continue buying and broadcasting US series.

"We are happy with the strength of our US series and think viewers will come back when there are new episodes," Pichler said.

ProSieben and RTL are the two German broadcasters that rely most on US programming.

According to a 2006 program analysis, 78 percent of ProSieben's and 47 percent of RTL's fictional programming came from the United States.

A matter of taste

Germany's publicly funded stations rely less on US productions, with the top two, ARD and ZDF, buying 21 percent and 22 percent of their fiction programming from the US. The two channels have also successfully invested in British, Scandinavian and French mystery series, according to Wolfgang Seufert, a professor at the University of Jena.

"In all, there is a clear preference for German series, followed by US productions and then series from other countries," he said, adding that a few US series beat out local productions to earn top ratings in Germany.

But Kern said German series just don't hold her attention.

"When I watch a German mystery I know who the murderer is in the first 10 minutes and change the channel," Kern said. "But I get sucked into the US shows and have to see what's going to happen next."

Viewers will wait it out

That's good news for German broadcasters, since home-grown productions cost more than purchasing and dubbing foreign series, Seufert said, He added that broadcasters can relax in knowing that viewers will be back whenever new episodes are ready to air.

"Overall TV use is relatively independent of what's being shown," he said, adding that the average German household has a choice of 30 channels. "When people's favorite show isn't on, they'll watch something else and then switch back when their favorite show is back."

Possible benefits for German writers

Viewers who are willing to sit through repeats or watch another program lower the chances that the Writers Guild of America strike -- especially if it ends soon -- will help German writers sell more scripts, according to Katharina Uppenbrink, head of the German Scriptwriters' Association.

"If the strike ends soon, I don't expect much of a change in stations' policies," she said.

But if the US writers' demands are met, it could help Germans' negotiating position when marketing their work, Uppenbrink said.

Though differences in German and US labor structure make a direct comparisons difficult, the average pay for all the rights to an episode of a German series, which can take between weeks and months to complete depending on the author, is between 23,000 euros and 24,000 euros ($34,200 and $35,700), she said. Over a five-year period, US writers earn an average annual income of $62,000, according to the Writers Guild of America.

"We're really watching what happens in the US because it would serve as a guide for Germans and Europeans," she said. "But right now it's still too early to tell what will happen."