British ambivalence

Of the eight former heads of state or government whose names have been bandied about on and off since the European Union decided to create the post, Tony Blair has always been considered one of the strongest candidates. He has the support of his native Britain, Ireland, France and Italy.

But not everyone is lining up behind him, as a letter released by the Benelux countries on Tuesday goes to show. In their missive, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxemburg outlined what they would be looking for in a president.

They said the successful candidate ought to "demonstrate his European engagement and a developed vision on all the Union's policies."

One diplomat interpreted the statement as a polite way of telling Blair that they don't think he is "best placed" to get the job.

Legitimate concerns?

And while Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini has said he favors the former British prime minister, he told Corriere della Sera newspaper that he can also understand why other countries have reservations about him.

The problems do not so much rest with Blair himself, but rather with Britain's apparent ambivalence towards Europe. A member of the now 27-strong union since 1971, Britain has neither signed up to the euro, nor to the passport-free Schengen zone.

What's more, Britain has to hold an election before June next year, and the Labour Party which Tony Blair brought to power in 1997 is trailing in the polls.

If that trend continues, come the middle of next year, David Cameron's Conservatives will be running the country. And if there is one issue upon which he has been vocal above all others, it is the European Union and the legal document meant to reform it, the Lisbon Treaty.

Still the chance for a referendum

Cameron has always maintained that if he got into Downing Street before the treaty had been ratified by all member states, he would invite the public to have their say at the ballot box. But a recent survey of 2,205 Conservative party members conducted for the Independent newspaper revealed that some 80 percent would want their leader to call a referendum even if the treaty were ratified by all 27 EU nations.

And it is precisely such anti-European sentiment from across the Channel that damages Blair's chances in Brussels.

Other contenders include the former Spanish leader Felipe Gonzalez, one-time prime minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker, past Irish president Mary Robinson and ex-leaders of Finland, the Netherlands and Belgium.

The appointment will not be made until the ratification process is complete, and that depends upon Poland and the Czech Republic signing up. Although Poland has said it is planning to become a signatory, Czech President Vaclav Klaus has vowed not to put his name to it until the Supreme Court has confirmed it conforms with the country's constitution.

tkw/AFP/Reuters
Editor: Nancy Isenson