Triumph for Italian justice?

Silvio Berlusconi has been sentenced and the decades-long conflict between the former Italian premier and the country's judiciary has reignited with a vengeance. The court in Milan said Friday that Berlusconi had a "natural capacity for crime." But what weighs heavier is the official confirmation that he is the mastermind behind an intricate system of tax fraud and illicit funds for clandestine deals.

Berlusconi and his supporters have decried the verdict as barbarism, political persecution and the end of democracy, and in a polemic twist are demanding life-long sentences for the judges.

Obviously, the verdict came as a surprise – it was not only earlier than expected but also harsher. The judges even added four months to the three years and eight months requested by the state prosecutor. Moreover, Berlusconi is barred from holding public office for five years and from being a company executive for three years.

Countless legal obstacles

The legal proceedings stretched over a period of almost 10 years. Berlusconi and his lawyers tried to obstruct the process at every possible turn, and state prosecutors were battling obstacle after obstacle. The investigation alone took almost four years before court proceedings finally kicked off in November 2006.

The hearing was plagued by repeated delays. On one occasion, Berlusconi's party tried to protect him from prosecution by introducing a new law redefining his legal status as premier; on other occasions, he simply referred to urgent matters of state which made it impossible for him to appear in court.

Following an extensive tug of war Berlusconi eventually agreed to appear in court on fixed dates. But he failed to turn up. The court issued a warning for unjustified absence. He in turn called on the court of appeal, which has yet to decide on the issue. Paradoxically, Friday's ruling could be rescinded if Berlusconi's appeal is upheld.

A symbolic verdict

The actual consequences of the verdict do not, however, justify the exaggerated response by Berlusconi and his supporters. Two further authorities still need to approve it before the verdict is legally binding. Given the habitual tardiness of the Italian judiciary and the almost endless leverage the defense has to influence proceedings, the whole issue will most likely become time-barred in the next two years.

The sentence has already been shortened by three years due to an amnesty law, and the remaining 12 months would probably be suspended. Not to mention the fact that in Italy, a 76-year-old criminal is not imprisoned on principle.

It's the symbolic value of the verdict that has so enraged Berlusconi. The fact that the judiciary wants to bar him from public office or company executive posts is a direct assault on his self-concept as a politician and businessman.

So far, he has weathered 25 trials. He himself always passed new laws which either time-barred the criminal offense or abolished the respective statutory offense. Of course, he was also acquitted in some cases. The verdict of this 26th trial is by contrast very clear and harsh and officially labels Berlusconi as a tax evader.

This has been common knowledge for some time, but it always lacked judicial confirmation. From Berlusconi's viewpoint this also does not bode well for the pending lawsuits – especially the "Bunga Bunga" trial regarding a sex scandal over underage prostitution, also taking place in Milan.

End of an era?

Only two days ago, Berlusconi declared he would not run in the next parliamentary election in the spring. His PDL party has been steadily losing ground ever since he stepped down as Italian premier nearly a year ago. But ironically, the verdict could be good timing for Berlusconi.

Speculation is rife that this renewed bout with the judiciary may reignite Berlusconi's political ambitions, enticing him to lead the center-right parties in the next election. As a member of parliament he would enjoy immunity from prosecution, and naturally he could also carry on pursuing his business deals at the same time.