Asia's New Strategic Baby: The Quadrilateral Forum

The first "quad" meeting took place quietly in Manila in May this year. High-ranking officials from the US, Japan, Australia and India met on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) which had gathered in the capital of the Philippines.

The meeting had been preceded by trilateral naval exercises by India, Japan and the US, which significantly, coincided with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Tokyo.

When George W. Bush came to power in the US in the 2000 presidential elections, one very definitive foreign policy strategy quickly became apparent -- the new administration's China policy. The basic principle was to "engage China economically, and counter it politically and militarily".

Strategic alliances

The US strategy was to secure the support of the Asia-Pacific region with a series of strategic alliances so as to contain Beijing's resurgence. One fear was that an economically and militarily-growing China, with a revived nationalistic fervour, could affect the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and adversely affect US interests and those of its close allies Japan, Australia and Taiwan.

The "quad" initiative is expected to take a firm shape over the next year, Indian officials have confirmed. New Delhi views this forum not as a new security bloc but as a tactical platform to evolve common thinking on shared concerns. It is vehement in its assertion that the forum is not a military gang-up against any state in particular.

Divided continent

The initiative reflects an important fact about Asia -- the world’s largest and most populated continent is coalescing economically but becoming more divided politically and strategically.

Various forums, such as the 26-nation ARF, the 16-state East Asia Summit (EAS) and the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) are indicative of this.

However, these forums are too large and unwieldy to produce enduring results by themselves. The quadrilateral initiative, on the other hand, is small and thus poised to be far more effective.

The India factor

While Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan are traditional US allies, the post-cold war era has brought in another player -- India.

It was Japan’s idea to turn existing trilateral security arrangements among the US, Japan and Australia into a quadrilateral forum by including India. The US Vice President Dick Cheney supported this initiative during his visit to Japan and Australia earlier this year.

Indo-US relations are an important swing factor in the international polity. Ties between the world's most populous and powerful democracies started to improve during the Clinton administration, but India’s nuclear tests in May 1998 put a spanner in the works.

Nuclear rivalry

The US and China then joined hands to roll back India’s nuclear programme. Beijing perceived it would not be possible to keep India locked in South Asia any longer, but Washington recognised that India had come of age and could be worked with for mutual advantage.

Indian leaders, including the then defence minister, George Fernandes, made clear that India was situated in a nuclear weapons region, and hence required at least a minimum deterrence. But it also declared a self-imposed moratorium on further nuclear tests.

Tense relations

However, Fernandes then declared China as India ’s No. 1 enemy. This gave Beijing the opportunity to further attack India and Indo-Sino relations almost froze.

India now views the quadrilateral as a grouping for developing mutual security, including that of the Indian Ocean sea lanes and New Delhi is participating in various military exercises.

However, China is not being completely ignored -- the Indian navy participated with its Chinese counterpart in a rescue operation exercise in Shanghai earlier this year.

A wary China

Nonetheless, China views with some concern India’s military exercise with the US, scheduled for October. And it is hardening its position in view of a quadrilateral exercise due later this year.

Ranjit Kumar, a journalist and the author of several books on international relations, lived in China for several years: "This initiative is obviously the latest bugbear for China in its bilateral relations with the US, India and Japan," he says.

"The chill has started showing in Sino-Indian relations of late as Beijing has upped its ante on its claim to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh."

As the game, which is only just beginning, expands to include other players, such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, these frictions are not likely to disappear.

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*Rajeev Sharma is a New Delhi-based journalist. He has authored five books on international affairs, his latest one "Global Jihad: Current Patterns and Future Trends" was launched in January 2007.