Troubled relations

The Swiss-brokered diplomatic deal between Turkey and Armenia is due to be signed in Zurich on Saturday. Attended by the foreign ministers of Russia, France and the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, many have high hopes for improving relations between these neighboring nations.

Ana, a nanny for a Turkish family in Istanbul, is one of thousands of Armenians forced to look for work abroad because of Turkey's trade embargo against Armenia. She says life in Istanbul is hard, because of the closed frontier between the two nations.

"We are illegal and earn very little money, and you always have to avoid the police as you could be arrested at any time and deported," she said.

Ana was overjoyed at the news that Turkey was prepared to re-establish ties with Armenia. In 1993, Turkey severed ties and closed its border after Armenia fought a war with Turkish ally Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh enclave.

"I can't wait for the embargo to be lifted," she said. "It will change everything, for both our countries. We just want peace and normalcy."

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the agreement will normalize bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia. But some experts caution that, while it's an important gesture, it's only the first step.

"It's pretty significant, but then the protocols will be sent to the respective parliaments for ratification and that's when the deal gets a bit more complicated, as there is strong opposition both in Armenia and Turkey," said Soli Ozel, an expert on international relations at Istanbul's Bilgi University.

Critics say deal betrays Azerbaijan

Turkey's main opposition parties have condemned the announcement, accusing the government of betraying its ally Azerbaijan. Armenian forces also continue to occupy a large part of Azeri territory. The government has been quick to dispel accusations of betrayal, saying it remains committed to Azerbaijan.

Erdogan said on Friday that Turkey "would never take part in a process which puts Azerbaijan in a difficult situation".

Suat Kiniklioglu, spokesman of the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs committee, insisted earlier this month that resolving Azeri grievances remains key to restoring Armenian-Turkish relations.

"Without movement on the Karabahk issue, the normalization process would be difficult to sustain. All the stars really do have to be aligned," Kiniklioglu said.

Ozel says the alignment is right, however, because for the first time since the conflict, major powers have a common interest in bringing stability to the region.

"My understanding is that there is almost near agreement on a framework between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Ozel said. "The Americans are behind these developments, but Russia's role is more important because the Russians can block it anytime they want. But I think it serves their purpose too, because Russian and American relations seem to be on a better track now. The Russians may wish to be on the right side of things."

Russian support is key

Such a diplomatic breakthrough in resolving the seemingly intractable dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be crucial if the government is to sell the opening of the Armenian border to its people. On the streets of Istanbul, for example, there remains suspicion of Armenia and widespread support for Azerbaijan, even among supporters of restoring diplomatic relations with Armenia.

A historical controversy between Armenia and Turkey could yet undermine attempts to re-establish ties. Many in the international community accuse Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers of committing genocide against its Armenian minority between 1915 and 1923. Ankara strongly denies the charge. The controversy continues to sour relations and add to the deep suspicion within the country over the rapprochement.

"This discourse about genocide is being imposed on us by great Western powers; that's why the debate about opening the border is not a simple question, for anybody," said political scientist and newspaper columnist, Nuray Mert. "The political opposition, knowing that it is a very sensitive issue, is using it against the government so that the issue is becoming even more complicated."

The message to Ankara from both Washington and Brussels is: forget about the opposition and open the border. But with critics of the deal in all political circles increasingly voicing their opposition, that's easier said than done, many analysts say. Erdogan will have to brace himself for a tough fight if he is to convince Turks that they are betraying neither a key ally, or themselves.

Author: Dorian Jones (dc)
Editor: Rob Turner