Weary and divided

These days, many Argentines greet this kind of farce with little more than a weary shake of the head. On February 1, the Argentine daily Clarin reported that public prosecutor Alberto Nisman intended to apply for a warrant to arrest President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

The following day the head of the Argentine cabinet Jorge Capitanich appeared before the media, demonstratively ripped up a copy of the newspaper's report in front of the cameras and described it as rubbish.

Then on February 3, Clarin published the documents. Shortly afterwards the investigating public prosecutor let it be known that she had indeed found an arrest warrant, dated June 2014, in Nisman's apartment - in the dead man's garbage.

"People aren't even surprised any more when they hear stories like these," says Kristin Wesemann, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's office in Argentina.

Mysterious death

It all began with the discovery of Nisman's body on January 19, one day before he was due to make a statement that would severely have incriminated the president. The 51-year-old father of two was found in his home with a bullet to head. There was no suicide note.

People on all sides were quick to doubt that it had been suicide. For nine years Nisman had headed the inquiry into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish center in Buenos Aires, in which 85 people died and around 300 wounded. He had accused President Kirchner of obstructing the investigation and hiding Iran's involvement.

Iran is alleged to have been behind the attack. And Kirchner is said to have made a deal with Iran: No convictions in exchange for closer economic ties. After Nisman's death, speculation was rife that the Argentine government had had him killed to prevent any further investigation along these lines.

Nonetheless, the authorities continued to insist that there was "no evidence of foul play," and that it had been suicide. Then came the presidential U-turn, following popular protest: not suicide after all. Nisman had been used; he was the victim of a secret service plot against the government. "The real operation against the government was the death of the public prosecutor," said Kirchner.

Little trust in the government

So who to believe? Opinion polls conducted by a number of institutes in the country show that the Argentine people's trust in their leadership has been profoundly shaken. Around a fifth of those questioned believe the government is directly responsible for Nisman's death, and 5 percent even suspect that Kirchner was personally involved. Only about a tenth believe that the case - if indeed it was not suicide - will ever be solved, or the guilty parties called to account.

The debate among Argentines is now dominated by bitterness and cynicism, especially on social media. President Kirchner and the chief of her cabinet Capitanich are the critics' main target.

Kirchner seems to have been provoked by this, and apparently took to Twitter in person on Wednesday (04.02.2015) to write: "Sorry. You know what? The whole thing is so inordinately ridiculous and absurd that the only way to respond is with humor."

"The tone the president is using to communicate on Twitter and Facebook really does take some getting used to," says Wesemann. Yet Kirchner and her supporters see themselves as the victims of a plot in which the "opposition media" is playing a major role. Clarin, Argentina's biggest daily newspaper, is first in the firing line for those loyal to the regime.

Polarized society

"There are no shades of grey in Argentina: People just see things in black or white," says Stephan Ruderer of the University of Münster, who is researching political corruption in Argentina. Society there is deeply divided, he says. "The current events will result in many Argentines turning away even more from politics, and mistrust will increase still further."

President Kirchner is already starting to feel this. Her approval rating is sinking rapidly, and now stands at just 25 percent, a huge drop from almost 60 percent on her re-election four years ago.

But Wesemann emphasizes that the people of Argentina have plenty of other problems to deal with. Inflation is still rising, the price of food keeps going up; the supermarkets are often completely empty, and there's little prospect that things will improve any time soon.

Many people see the upcoming presidential election in October as a ray of hope. It looks as if the Nisman case will be the end of the Kirchner era, because it seems that Argentines agree on one point at least - something has to change.