Strategic partnership

The Loya Jirga that is planned for this week is the tenth in Afghanistan's history. The "traditional assembly" is usually called ahead of major events such as choosing a new king, adopting a constitution, or discussing important national political or emergency matters, as well as settling disputes.

At the Loya Jirga that took place after the Taliban regime had been toppled, the decision was made to take the path of democracy. This year, says Helaludin Helal from the Loya Jirga Commission in Kabul, the 2,300 delegates will decide on one point only: "Whether Afghanistan should enter a strategic partnership with the US?"

Maintaining US presence after 2014

So far the US-Afghanistan strategic partnership has not been finalized and the details of what exactly it would entail have yet to be revealed officially.

However, it would seem that the US wants to set up several military bases in Afghanistan and thus prolong its presence there after the 2014 withdrawal of ISAF troops.

Officially, the reasoning is that the US wants to prevent the Taliban and al Qaeda regaining their influence in Afghanistan.

There are currently 100,000 US soldiers stationed in Afghanistan.

Neighboring states are wary

Many of Afghanistan's neighbors are wary of the US maintaining a long-term presence in Afghanistan. "The Iranians feel caught in the pincers because of the US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Pakistanis, who have their own atom bomb, are worried that the US might intervene in their country militarily," says South Asia expert Konrad Schetter from the Center for Development Research in Bonn.

Russia and China are also reluctant to allow the US to have bases on their borders, says Schetter, as this would clash with their plans to gain unhindered access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, which are so rich in natural resources.

Exerting pressure

For weeks, lobbyists have been trying to exert their influence on the council members. "Some neighbors want to impose their interests," explains Helal.

"However, I hope that the Afghan delegates will decide in the interest of the country and not let themselves be swayed," he says, insisting that a US-Afghan strategic partnership would not be directed against the neighboring states. Such assurances seem insufficient for calming regional concern, where the message is clearly against any such partnership.

In any case, says Schetter, Kabul does not have that much choice: "The US influence in Afghanistan is huge. If the Americans say they absolutely want to have military bases in Afghanistan and will pay a lot for them then in the end it will only be a matter of price. The country is bitterly poor and needs the money urgently." Already, Kabul has made clear that its line is that the partnership will consolidate Afghanistan's position in the region.

Experts fear the strategic partnership will not bring the much hoped for stability and wealth since opponents will do all they can to put forward their own interests.

Author: Ratbil Shamel / act
Editor: Shamil Shams