Election controversy

Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) ruled on Tuesday that incumbent President Hamid Karzai and his closest rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, should face off directly against one another in a second vote on Nov. 7.

In the first round of voting this August, which featured dozens of candidates, Karzai initially got 54 percent of the ballots. But that election was marred by fraud - with the UN-run Electoral Complaints Commision saying that up to 90 percent of ballots cast at some polling stations shouldn't have counted.

Karzai and Adbullah have both said they welcome the IEC's ruling, while world leaders, including US President Barack Obama and UN Sercretary General Ban Ki Moon, also hailed the decision to hold second vote.

The German Foreign Ministry said Berlin was pleased that a way forward had been found.

"It is important for all those involved to show responsibility, calm and moderation during the current situation and ensure there is a credible continuation of the electoral process," the ministry said in an official statement.

But Afghans living in Germany are skeptical about how credible any election results can be.

Lesser of two evils

Although there had been some talk of a power-sharing agreement between Karzai and Abdullah, a runoff was practically inevitable after grotesque irregularities were reported in almost every aspect of the election process.

"It has to happen," Matin Baraki - an Afghan author and translator who teaches at the University of Marburg - told Deutsche Welle. "Karzai would have no credibility and democracy itself would be discredited, if such a vote were simply allowed to stand."

Nasim Saber, a freelance journalist and co-founder of the Afghanistan Information Center in Bonn, concurred that the runoff was necessary, although the revote won't even come close to Western standards of fairness.

"It's important to carry through because it's the only possibility for avoiding a civil war," Saber said.

The runoff will allow direct competition between two of the main political forces in Afghanistan, the circles around the Northern alliance who favor Abdullah and the Pashtoons in the South of which Karzai is a member.

Anything but black and white

But nothing in Afghanistan, a war-torn country with a bewildering variety of ethnicities, is ever clear cut.

Many Pashtoons, for instance, feel underrepresented in a state in which they make up the largest ethnic group, and the fact that Karzai has been president does little to alleviate their discontent.

Meanwhile others see in the incumbent little more than a corrupt leader installed by the West.

"Karzai was artificially elevated to power and never succeeded in unifying the various groups in the country," Baraki said. "He's also very corrupt and never managed to install a functional bureaucracy. If the vote had been truly fair, he wouldn't have gotten more than 10 percent."

Karzai's image in the West has greatly suffered since he officially took office in 2004. But in some cases, ironically, that fact may have helped him on the domestic front.

"It was very problematic that he was portrayed as a savior, the proverbial fairy-tale prince of the Orient when he actually came from a Pashto political dynasty, Saber said.

"But the difference in public perception between then and now is too great and may have to do with Karzai's criticism of the allies' air-bombing strategy," Saber added. "It created sympathy for him, and in the South there have even been demonstrations in favor of the first election results."

The large numbers of civilian casualties resulting from the US-led aerial bombardment of the Taliban have created increasing resentment toward the presence of foreign troops. And that, together with endemic corruption within the Afghan government, may be working to the advantage of the West's enemies.

Old donkey, new saddle?

Few observers doubt that Karzai will win the runoff. Indeed, it's questionable whether anything will change in Afghanistan regardless of the outcome.

"There's an Afghan saying: 'The donkey stays the same - only the saddle changes," Baraki said. "The election swindle will drive a lot of people into the arms of the insurgents."

But Saber cautions against unrealistically high expectations of any Afghan elections.

"The irregularities are so great that they cannot meet the standards of the West or even the Third World," Saber said. "But we need to remember that the vote is taking place during a war, which is being fought with live ammunition and where people have had their fingers cut off just for voting."

So what is the way forward - if indeed there is one?

Patience versus withdrawal

Saber says all parties concerned must realize that it will take three to four decades for true democracy to take root in Afghanistan and argues that all parties need to be brought to the table.

"It was a mistake to completely exclude the Taliban, and the hearts of the country's 20 million Pashtoons need to be won over," Saber told Deutsche Welle. "Afghans need to join together in a common fight against extremists, and the parity between ethnic groups should be implemented through clear benchmarks of what we want to achieve in the future."

Saber added that despite the presence of a Pashto president, too often initiatives have ignored the language and culture of Afghanistan's largest ethnic group.

Baraki favors a more comprehensive change of approach, including the replacement of NATO troops with peacekeepers from Non-Aligned Movement states, a greater role for the Islamic world and increased development aid from the West in return for decreased military expenditures.

"There won't be an external or a military solution," Baraki said. "There has to be a national Afghan resolution based on a reconciliation initiative between the various groups."

But both of those visions are a long way off. In the short term, Afghans will have to hope that November's runoff brings a measure of reconciliation - and legitimacy - to what's been a thoroughly contentious election.

Author: Jefferson Chase
Editor: Rob Mudge