Hopes of improved ties

As meetings between heads of state go, the 25-minute conversation on Monday, November 10, between Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, and Xi Jinping, the president of China, was relatively brief and straightforward. Symbolically, however, it is deeply significant.

The rivalry between these two east Asian powers has been simmering for decades, but they have been at each others' throats over disputed territory and interpretations of their shared history since 2010, when a Chinese fisherman was arrested by the Japan Coast Guard for operating in waters close to the Senkaku Islands.

The uninhabited archipelago, in the East China Sea, is controlled by Japan but claimed by Beijing, where the islands are known as the Diaoyu.

The arrest triggered violent attacks on Japanese businesses in China and sent bilateral relations into a downward spiral - not helped by Abe and some members of his cabinet paying their respects at Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, the last resting place of Japan's war dead, including 14 Class A war criminals.

Ahead of the Beijing meeting of heads of state of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, however, there have been moves by both sides to at least start the process of rebuilding bridges that appeared to have been burned.

Issues in the background

"This meeting is significant in the sense that it puts all the issues in the background," Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, told DW.

"Abe may not have said so, but Xi can now be sure that he will not go to Yasukuni again; that is the tacit arrangement they have reached," he said. "Equally, I expect Chinese surveillance vessels to come into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkakus, but the fact that they have agreed to set up a hotline to avoid accidental clashes from escalating is important."

So not much changes as we go forward, but the fact that they had a meeting is significant, Okumura added. "Both men will have agreed that they don't want anything to happen that will escalate the existing tension between the two countries. And this now sets the political environment to go forward on issues, such as investment into China by Japanese companies and China as a destination for Japanese tourists."

Analysts say the mechanism to avoid accidents or miscalculations that could lead to a wider conflict is particularly important given the presence of hundreds of Chinese fishing boats poaching rare and valuable red coral in Japanese waters around the Ogasawara Islands, south of Tokyo.

Parallels with 2010

The parallels between this situation and the 2010 incident off the Senkakus are clear and it is possible that an accident involving the Japan Coast Guard that caused the loss of a Chinese ship - or the deaths of any members of its crew - would once again trigger violent anti-Japanese outbursts in China.

And there is a national security element involved in what are ostensibly civilian fishing vessels operating illegally in Japanese waters.

"China is known to deputize fishing boats and their crews and it is likely that these boats that are poaching coral around the Ogasawara islands are also gathering useful information that they then share with the Chinese military," said Okumura.

"It would be things like how the Japanese side reacts in given circumstances, how fast they respond and so on," he added. "It is almost as if it is a dress rehearsal for [an invasion of] the Senkakus."

But other long-time watchers of the Japan-China relationship are more dismissive of Monday's meeting between the two leaders.

"I see no progress at all resulting from a 25-minute meeting during which about half that time would be taken up by the translators," said Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at the Japan campus of Temple University.

'No concessions'

"The joint statement says not much; there have been no concessions by either side. China's behavior will not change and Abe is not going to negotiate on the Senkakus. So what is new?" questioned Dujarric.

"It's just politeness," he added. "Abe has been invited to the APEC meeting in Beijing and China is not able to un-invite him, so as the host Xi cannot avoid shaking hands with Abe."

But given what might evolve into a new-found friendship between Beijing and Tokyo, Okumura said analysts should closely watch the actions of the Chinese poachers operating in Japanese waters. They are, he suggested, the litmus test of Beijing's real intentions.

"These boats come from small ports, and I find it hard to believe that the Chinese authorities cannot put a stop to their operations if they wanted to," he said. "At the very least, it would be seen as a challenge to the Chinese government if they were told to stop and kept coming."