Democracy in jeopardy?

Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah demanded on Wednesday that electoral authorities stop counting ballots from the June 14 runoff vote, citing allegations of widespread fraud. The former foreign minister also announced his team was suspending relations with the Independent Election Commission (IEC), accusing it of interfering in the vote and inflating turnout figures. However, the IEC rejected his demand and appealed to all sides to await final results.

The runoff vote, which comes at a critical time in the country as foreign troops prepare to leave in the coming months, pitted Abdullah against ex-World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani and has been widely regarded as a major step in the country's democratic transition. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, says in a DW interview Abdullah has made a dramatic accusation while presenting no substantive evidence. In order to uphold the integrity of the electoral process, Kugelman adds, Afghan election officials probably won't start to investigate these allegations until the vote counting process has concluded.

DW: Abdullah was recently quoted as saying he would reject the election result because his claims of massive fraud have failed to stop the ongoing vote count. What may be the reasons the candidate's actions?

One possibility is that Abdullah genuinely thinks that massive fraud has been committed. And he may have some grounds for justification. Very mysterious lists of results have been spread on social media that appear to show Ashraf Ghani winning astoundingly high numbers of votes. It's unclear where these lists are originating from, but their mere existence suggests some reason for suspicion. It's hard to believe Abdullah would take the dramatic step of rejecting the results at such an early point unless he has good reason to think there has been major, major fraud.

Another possibility - one that would certainly put Abdullah in a more unflattering light - is that Abdullah suspects he simply didn't fare very well in the runoff. And again there is reason to think this could be the case. According to eyewitness reports, there was some strikingly high turnout in Pashtun areas, which would benefit Ghani.

Hanging over this all is Hamid Karzai. His harshest critics believe that he is trying to sabotage the election process in order to prolong his time in power. They believe that fraud has occurred, and that he is behind it. There are no evidence-based reasons yet to think this is true. But in the aftermath of Abdullah's actions, suspicion will certainly sharpen about a possible Karzai role.

Has anyone been able to confirm Abdullah's allegations of massive fraud?

No. This is another reason why Abdullah's actions are so mysterious. He has made a dramatic accusation while presenting no substantive evidence at all. And in order to uphold the integrity of the electoral process, Afghan election officials probably won't start to investigate these allegations until the vote counting process has concluded.

Abdullah has said the electoral process is not legitimate, is there any reason to doubt the legitimacy of the IEC?

Given the levels of corruption in Afghanistan, there's certainly reason to worry. That said, Afghanistan and its foreign donors have invested immense amounts of resources into the IEC and related institutions to make them cleaner and more transparent. Until or unless Abdullah presents evidence behind this accusation, it' s difficult to make a credible argument that the IEC is illegitimate.

Have Abdullah's complaints about alleged fraud in the runoff election thrown the country's first democratic transfer of power into doubt?

Not yet, though it's very possible and may jeopardize the democratic transition process. Given Abdullah's fraud allegations, if Ghani is announced as the victor, the result would be rejected by Abdullah's supporters across the board - and the prospects for violence would skyrocket. Ultimately, it would come down to Abdullah himself. If he counsels calm, then the likelihood of unrest and violence would certainly decrease, though not disappear altogether. If he calls on his legions of supporters to take to the streets, then there could be all kinds of problems.

Could Abdullah's actions jeopardize the whole electoral process?

For now, the electoral process is intact, because the vote-counting process will continue. The IEC will not stop to investigate fraud allegations until it has completed this count.

Could this be a repeat of 2009 where Abdullah withdrew from the runoff election against Hamid Karzai, alleging massive fraud had been committed in the first round of the vote?

Yes, this absolutely has the potential to be another 2009 - though at least at this point, it's not clear if massive fraud has been committed. If Abdullah could marshall any evidence to support his very loud accusations, then the legitimacy of his accusations would strengthen, and he'd probably draw more of the country to his side. And if that happens, Afghanistan could be in for some very turbulent times - with no future leader in sight.

What implications could the abandonment of the electoral process have for the country a whole? Could this result in violence?

In a fragile, volatile country like Afghanistan, political paralysis would be a disaster. A leaderless, politically adrift nation would be the worst of all worlds for stability and the economy. And we could expect the Taliban to take full advantage of such a tense situation.

Also, if the political crisis drags deep into the fall, then concerns will begin to be raised about whether there will be a new Afghan leader in place in time for a security agreement to be signed with the US that allows for a residual foreign force to stay in the country as of next year.

Michael Kugelman is an Afghanistan expert and senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, where he is responsible for research, programming, and publications on South and Southeast Asia.

The interview was conducted by Gabriel Domínguez.