A US Perspective on the German Election

Daniel Ziblatt, an assistant professor of government and social studies at Harvard University, is on an election tour of several German cities from Sept. 9-20, 2005. The tour, coordinated by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), is held for every national election for an international group of German specialists. DW-WORLD spoke with Ziblatt during his stop in Leipzig.

DW-WORLD: What is the level of interest in the US toward the election?

Daniel Ziblatt: It's not very high among the American public. There's a lot going on now -- the New Orleans flood and debate about the Supreme Court nominations, so there's a real focus inward and the agenda is domestic politics rather than foreign politics.

Do you think the US government has a preference as to who wins?

I think there's a sense that the Bush administration would prefer that (Christian Democratic Union challenger) Angela Merkel wins. The Bush administration can probably work with anybody, but Merkel wrote in an article for the Washington Post that (Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard) Schröder doesn't speak for all Germans. I think there is a sense also that the Bush administration would have a slightly freer hand if Merkel were in power, with regard to Iran.

How would you compare German and American election campaigns?

Comparing the quality of debate to the last election in the US, I think it is very high. There's a really wide-ranging set of appeals made by political parties about how to combat a range of issues. The central issue in the election is unemployment and there's a wide range of very specific proposals and tax policies. Although the Germans often complain that this is just a choice between Pepsi and Coca-Cola, from an American perspective, there's a different kind of debate going on in Germany than there would be in the US.

How do German TV debates differ from American ones?

One huge difference is that German debates are much less structured. In American debates, the parties agree to the rules and they are set up in a very strict way. German debates are wide-ranging and people can speak longer. It's a more natural debate. You get a sense of who the candidates are, but people get interrupted and it leaves it more in the hands of the moderator. Television debates are increasingly important in Germany, but they're not decisive.

Are TV debates going to become more common in German elections?

I would image they are. Traditionally, the focus has been on parties in Germany, but there's increasing focus on personalities of candidates. You'll hear things like 'Schröder looks like he's trying to be too macho' and 'Merkel looks like a lonely person.' It's not as far developed as in the US, but that sort of thing makes people curious about who the candidates are and makes them want to see them in a televised debate.

Would you say Germans really expect change from this election?

There seems to be this mass sense that Germany's facing a crisis -- given the unemployment rate and the future demographic problems. Objectively, I'd say German society is doing quite well. If there really is a sense that Germany is in a crisis, extreme policy proposals will be adopted rather than the best, most thought-out solutions. The German system is designed to be incremental. To expect that by electing a party, you can get a radical change is just going to generate disappointment. I've heard that there needs to be a radical break to address these problems. The choice is between quick and gradual change. The Bundesrat (Germany's upper chamber of parliament) has been increasingly controlled by the CDU so Schröder can't get much done. So people think if they vote for CDU-FDP (the Christian Democrats and their prefered coalition partners, the free-market liberal Free Democrats) that will allow reforms to get through.

Will Schröder be vindicated if he wins narrowly in this election?

If that were to happen, the SPD (Social Democrats) and Greens would be in the same position of declining popularity. If he's received the mandate of the people, this will give him some increased support, but the political reality is that he will still be confronting the Bundesrat and the challenge from the left. So, I think Schröder faces a whole set of dilemmas if he comes back into power that aren't really resolved by this vote.

Megan Harris interviewed Daniel Ziblatt