A troubled host

The choice of location is supposed to be a symbol of Iraq's return to normality. From March 27 to 29, this year's annual Arab League summit will take place in the country's capital Baghdad.

But Iraq is still far from any semblance of normality - as became evident recently. On March 20, over 30 coordinated bomb attacks across Iraq left close to 50 people dead and more than 250 injured.

The Iraqi wing of al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for the bombings. The group "Islamic State of Iraq" said in a statement on a militant website that it wanted the attacks to show just how bad the Iraqi government's security preparations were for the Arab League summit. The group called next week's gathering "the meeting of the Arab tyrants."

A summit under siege

The summit begins Tuesday with talks between various Arab ministers. It will reach its peak on Thursday when heads of state and government leaders meet for consultations. It is the first Arab League summit being held in Baghdad for over 20 years.

"The meeting is very significant for the Iraqi government," said Ferhad Ibrahim, an Iraq expert from the University of Erfurt. Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki needed the recognition by the Arab world and the West. The summit would show the outside world "that he is a strong man at the head of a sovereign nation," Ibrahim said. He said he believed the terrorists' goal was to have the conference postponed.

The Iraqi government does not consider the summit in danger. Iraq's representative to the Arab League Qais al-Azzawi pointed out that the attacks took place far from the heavily guarded Green Zone, where the meeting is taking place. The area is surrounded by cement walls and armed checkpoints. According to media reports, the Iraqi government has invested some $450 million (342 million euros) to prepare for the summit, as well as in security and infrastructure measures.

"But absolute security cannot exist," Ibrahim said. No one could guarantee that parts of the security forces weren't working together with al Qaeda or with supporters of toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. Nonetheless, Ibrahim said he was opposed to postponing the summit.

"That would call the legitimacy of the Iraqi government into question," he said.

Worsening security situation

Since US troops pulled out of the country last December, the security situation in Iraq has gotten significantly worse.

"The latest attacks are part of an entire al Qaeda series of such operations," said Matthew Henman, an Iraq expert at IHS Jane's defense consultants. "The terrorists want to show that they have not lost their skills to pull off serious attacks."

Henman said al Qaeda was attempting to incite violence between religious groups - Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. Some 60 percent of Iraqis are Shiite, while the number of Arab Sunnis is about 20 percent. The remaining are Kurdish and Turkmenian Sunnis. Under Saddam Hussein, the Sunnis controlled the country.

But Shiite Prime Minister Maliki was not entirely innocent in the escalation, said Asiem El Difraoui, an Iraq expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP in Berlin.

"The security situation has also worsened because Maliki is taking extremely aggressive action against supports of toppled dictator Saddam Hussein's Baath party and other Sunni politicians," El Difraoui said. "It appears as if the Maliki government wants to secure their own power structures and not attempt to negotiate reasonable compromises with other political groups in the country."

After the 2010 elections, ethnic and religious groups signed a power-sharing agreement in Erbil. Sunni representatives, however, were systematically disempowered. The coalition government comprised of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds "is clinically dead," said Ibrahim.

Sunni politicians under pressure

At the same time, the Iraqi judicial system is taking action against Sunni politicians. In the past few months, authorities have issued several arrest warrants for terror suspicion. The most prominent case is vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi. The well-known Sunni has been accused of ordering and financing bomb attacks and assassinations. Hashemi has rejected the allegations and fled to the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, thus evading arrest.

Hashemi accuses Maliki of exploiting the judiciary to get rid of unpopular politicians. But according to diplomats, hardly any Iraqi politician that had managed to remain in power over the past 10 years had a clean slate.

The Kurds have so far refused to turn Hashemi over to the central government. Representatives of the Kurdish president said that Hashemi would voluntarily return to Baghdad only when a secure and fair trial was guaranteed. The Kurds do not want to be pulled into the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites.

Social crisis instead of oil wealth

At the same time, social discontent is spreading across the country. Followers of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr recently staged protests in Basra in southern Iraq against corruption and discrimination. The rally which was dubbed the "Day to Support Oppressed Iraqis" was also directed against the Maliki government. He is accused of not having improved the lives of poor Iraqis.

"Of course there are oases of prosperity such as the Kurdish north," said SWP's El Difraoui. "But as a whole, social discontent is enormous. In most regions, power is still shut off several times a day and the water supply is also supposed to be catastrophic."

Despite enormous resources and a relatively well-educated middle class, there is only little progress being made in Iraq. El Difraoui attributes the country's stagnation to the difficult security situation and ubiquitous corruption. The Iraqi government therefore still has a lot to do - even after the Arab League Summit.

Author: Nils Naumann / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge