Ongoing conflict
June 22, 2011
North and South Sudan have worked out a new plan on how to demilitarize the oil-rich border region of Abyei. The move raises hopes that the South will be able to declare independence as planned - but there are some clouds on the horizon.
In just a few weeks, if all goes according to plan, South Sudan will be an independent country. But so far no one has had much of a reason to celebrate. Fighting has broken out along the future border between the two countries, leaving hundreds dead and more than 100,000 refugees so far. The situation is at least as tense as it was six years ago, when the civil war there came to an end.
Ethiopian peacekeepers offer glimmer of hope
The government in Khartoum and the leadership of South Sudan, in Juba, both lay claim to the region, and troops from the north have occupied Abyei since May. It's a sticky situation: People from the southern Sudanese Dinka-Ngok tribe are prevalent in Abyei, but nomads from the north also graze their herds there. Both groups fear the region will wind up belonging to the other country after division.
But now, there is a glimmer of hope in what once seemed to be an insurmountable and bloody problem. On June 20, the parties reached a new agreement about Abyei. Political representatives from North and South Sudan have both said they would pull out their troops, and the region will be overseen by a blue-helmeted Ethiopian peacekeeping force.
"I think it's a good sign that people do not want to go back to war," said Khalid Abdu Dahab, a spokesman for the Pan-African Parliament, who himself comes from northern Sudan. "We have had war for too many years and both the north and the south have suffered greatly."
Dispute over resources
But there are those who are skeptical about the peacekeeping plan - among them southern Sudanese journalist Josephine Achiro. She says she doesn't believe north Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir when he says he will pull his troops out of Abyei.
"I think he realized that the government of South Sudan was beginning to get ready to rescue the situation of the people in Abyei. That's why he is playing his game and telling the international community that he is withdrawing his troops, but he will not," she said. "Or he will withdraw his troops but then he will send them back."
The fight over Abyei is more than just a dispute over who belongs on the land - it is also a fight over two key resources, water and oil. But in its depths, the conflict between leaders of the Muslim North and the Christian-influenced South is even more complex, some people involved in the conflict say.
Al-Bashir under pressure
Marina Peter is a spokeswoman for the Sudan Forum, an interest group acting on behalf of Sudanese - both northern and southern - who have immigrated to Germany. She notes that there are still a host of problems to be solved.
"Currently, many questions remain unanswered - for example regarding security, or introducing the new border, dividing resources, and so forth," Peter said. "On the one hand, both sides seem to really want to get a bargaining chip to use in the coming negotiations."
The situation has put Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir under pressure, and the coming division of the country has cost him some respect from within his own government. In January, 99 percent of South Sudanese voted in a referendum to secede from the North, and as a result the largest country in Africa will lose one-third of its area and most of its oil deposits.
Some of the most intense disputes are over oil - but it is in the interest of both sides to resolve them peacefully, says the Pan-African Parliament's Khalid Abdu Dahab.
"Most of the oil is in the south, but it goes out through a pipeline that goes northwards. It means that both sides have an interest in that oil flowing. If they try and resort to conflict, then I think both sides will be losers," Dahab said.
A host of hot-spots
Meanwhile, oil-rich Abyei is far from the only hot spot in the Sudan. The unsolved crisis in Darfur, in the west of the country, continues to simmer. And for the past few weeks, soldiers from the North have been fighting against southern militias in southern Kurdufan. According to the UN, there are currently at least 60,000 refugees that region. The situation is alarming, since they remain cut off from humanitarian aid.
According to the Sudan Forum's Marina Peter, there is no clear end in sight to the violence in Sudan. She urges the international community to get ready for a long and difficult process of democratization in the region - and to keep up the pressure to end the fighting in Sudan.
"The international community has to make it clear to both sides that aid will not come their way as long as they are at war. That means no debt cancellation, or that the US won't take Sudan off its terrorist list. It is a kind of pressure," she said.
A return to civil war is the last thing the people from North and South Sudan need. But whether or South Sudan will celebrate its first independence day on July 9 in peace also remains to be seen.
Author: Gönna Ketels (jen)
Editor: Michael Knigge